SSPP Archive

Abstract

We examine the impact of ideological alignment between institutions disseminating research findings and policymakers on adopting evidence-based policies. We conduct a country-wide RCT in which two ideologically opposite prominent think tanks, two major newspapers, and a research institution with nonsalient ideology to communicate the exact same information about a low-cost, non-ideological, and effective policy based on published research findings to a large sample of Spanish local policymakers. We measure the direct impact of information on policy adoption. We propose a three-stage conceptual framework of policy adoption processes - selective exposure to information, belief updating, and policy implementation. Finally, we discuss the trade-offs between effectiveness and outreach when using ideologically aligned and non-salient institutions to disseminate research evidence and comment on the economic impact of ideological alignment for policy implementation.

Study ID sspp-2024-0007-v1
Authors Pedro Rey-Biel, Jorge García-Hombrados, Berkay Ózcan, Antonio Roldán-Monés, Ángel Martínez, Marcel Jansen
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Political Economics, Public Economics, Experimental Economics, Political Economy, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date April 12, 2024


Citation
Rey-Biel, Pedro, García-Hombrados, Jorge, Ózcan, Berkay, Roldán-Monés, Antonio, Martínez, Ángel, and Marcel Jansen. 2024. "Evidence based policy adoption and ideological alignment." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/z486dd



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Abstract

The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. We evaluate a large U.S. guaranteed income program implemented by two nonprofits. 1,000 individuals in the treatment group will receive $1,000 per month for 3 years, while a control group of 2,000 individuals who receive $50 per month will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Study ID sspp-2023-0050-v1
Authors Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2024


Citation
Bartik, Alex, Broockman, David, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2023. "The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22edc4

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


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Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of a significant salary increase for Junior Panchayat Secretaries (JPS) in Telangana, India, aligning their pay with that of regular Panchayat Secretaries (PS). Previously, JPS earned substantially less than PS, despite performing nearly identical duties in village administration and development. The Telangana government's policy reform in July 2021 equalized their salaries. We will ask you to the impact of this pay rise on the performance of these bureaucrats, measured through various metrics, including supervisor assessments, self-reported data, and citizen evaluations.

Study ID sspp-2023-0066-v1
Authors Siddharth George, Martin Mattsson
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2024


Citation
George, Siddharth, and Martin Mattsson. 2023. "Impact of Salary Equalization on Panchayat Secretaries' Performance in Telangana." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/60a22c



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Abstract

Research has found that women are more likely to disregard their own preferences in favor of those of others, including in romantic relationships and social interactions with the opposite gender. For example, women consistently give more in dictator games in which they can decide how to allocate a given amount of resources between themselves and others. Teenage girl empowerment programs are widely used to address these and other gender disparities, recognizing the potential lifetime benefits of early changes in girls’ trajectories and that attitudes and behaviors are most malleable at a younger age. This study examines the effects of a teenage girl empowerment campaign, called SKY club, in Nairobi, Kenya, where gender inequalities are prevalent. Through a TV series, magazine articles, Youtube and other social media content, the SKY club seeks to strengthen the bond between girls (“sisterhood”), increase their confidence, encourage them to resist peer pressure and express their own needs and preferences. We assess the direct effects of this campaign on participants as well as within-household spillover effects on other teenagers and young adults.

Study ID sspp-2023-0067-v1
Authors Tinghua Yu, Uchechi Annaduaka, Selina Hofstetter, Anna Wilke
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Development Economics, Comparative Politics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2024


Citation
Yu, Tinghua, Annaduaka, Uchechi, Hofstetter, Selina, and Anna Wilke. 2023. "Direct and Spillover Effects of a Teenage Girl Empowerment Program: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Nairobi, Kenya.." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d4yfz0

Abstract

Launched in January 2019 by the Indian Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) aims to cut particulate matter pollution in 131 cities by 40% from 2017 levels by 2026. We ask you to predict the effect of this program on India's air pollution.

Study ID sspp-2023-0068-v1
Authors Martin Mattsson, Sangita Vyas, Archana Bala
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Environment, Resource And Energy Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2024


Citation
Mattsson, Martin, Vyas, Sangita, and Archana Bala. 2023. "The Effects of India's National Clean Air Programme." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 23. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/y6yayd



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Abstract

This project seeks to expand our knowledge of informal wage employment in low- and middle-income countries by observing how wages (and other employment variables) respond to (exogenous) income shocks to small firms and their workers.

Study ID sspp-2023-0064-v1
Authors Morgan Hardy, Jamie McCasland, Jiayue Zhang
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2023


Citation
Hardy, Morgan, McCasland, Jamie, and Jiayue Zhang. 2023. "Small Enterprise Employment Financial Assistance." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cxyb2z



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Abstract

We want to elicit predictions about the impacts of expanding different types of job loss insurance schemes in the aftermath of a mass layoff in the garment industry in Ethiopia.

Study ID sspp-2023-0029-v1
Authors Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, Francois Gerard, Lukas Hensel
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 31, 2023


Citation
Abebe, Girum, Caria, Stefano, Gerard, Francois, and Lukas Hensel. 2023. "Job Loss Insurance in Ethiopia." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 4. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bxcc4e



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Abstract

This study focuses on overprecision, the excessive faith that you know the truth. Overprecision is the most durable and pervasive form of overconfidence, and has been studied using several different measures. Rarely does one study employ more than one of these measures. We want your forecast for how closely they are related!

Study ID sspp-2023-0063-v1
Authors Don Moore, Sophia Li, Randall Hale
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 31, 2023


Citation
Moore, Don, Li, Sophia, and Randall Hale. 2023. "Correlating Different Measures of Overprecision." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ac6zyd



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Abstract

We are conducting a randomized control trial to improve access to water, hygiene and sanitation services and practices in Democratic Republic of Congo. We would love to elicit your expectations about the results of our analysis.

Study ID sspp-2023-0045-v1
Authors Aidan Coville, Eric Mvukiyehe, Kevin Croke, John Quattrochi
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Health Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 31, 2023


Citation
Coville, Aidan, Mvukiyehe, Eric, Croke, Kevin, and John Quattrochi. 2023. "RCT Hygience Intervention Congo." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0f4ed4



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Abstract

I study the effect of SMS-based business management trainings on outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in Kenya. I designed a field experiment in which access to SMS-based trainings was randomized across about 4,700 Kenyan micro-entrepreneurs. I plan to analyze data on outcomes collected 3 months and 12 months after the intervention to estimate short and medium run effects on key outcomes including learning and adoption of best practices, time investment in business and side jobs, credit outcomes, and business survival and performance. For this survey, I aim to elicit predictions for the effects to be estimated in the 12 month followup. I also measure willingness to pay for SMS-based trainings through take-it-or-leave-it offers for an additional training, whereby the price was randomized across three levels: free, half of the marginal cost of provision, and double the marginal cost of provision.

Study ID sspp-2023-0052-v1
Authors Muhammad Zia Mehmood
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 27, 2023


Citation
Muhammad Zia Mehmood. 2023. "Predicting effects of an SMS-based business management training." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/x6408b

Abstract

I study the effect of SMS-based business management trainings on outcomes for micro-entrepreneurs in Kenya. I designed a field experiment in which access to SMS-based trainings was randomized across about 4,700 Kenyan micro-entrepreneurs. I plan to analyze data on outcomes collected 3 months and 12 months after the intervention to estimate short and medium run effects on key outcomes including learning and adoption of best practices, time investment in business and side jobs, credit outcomes, and business survival and performance. For this survey, I aim to elicit predictions for the effects to be estimated in the 12 month followup. I also measure willingness to pay for SMS-based trainings through take-it-or-leave-it offers for an additional training, whereby the price was randomized across three levels: free, half of the marginal cost of provision, and double the marginal cost of provision.

Study ID sspp-2023-0051-v1
Authors Muhammad Zia Mehmood
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 11, 2023


Citation
Muhammad Zia Mehmood. 2023. "Predicting demand for and effects of an SMS-based business management training." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/f8xa24

Abstract

We are researchers at Stanford University and Carnegie Mellon University running an incentivized experiment to investigate whether and how much people value satisfying others' preferences when the others' beliefs about whether those preferences are satisfied are fixed and won't change. In this study, we ask you to predict our main outcomes. Participation should take about five to ten minutes.

Study ID sspp-2023-0032-v1
Authors Gonzalo Arrieta, Lukas Bolte
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 1, 2023


Citation
Arrieta, Gonzalo, and Lukas Bolte. 2023. "Forecasting experimental participants' value for satisfying preferences when beliefs are fixed." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 27. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/e4zf46



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Abstract

You will see short summaries of three A/B tests and be asked to estimate the results of each (what % of users would choose each of the two subscription options). We want to get people's estimates about the impact of different forms of choice architecture. The first two are field experiments that were conducted by a learning subscriptions company. The third is an online experiment conducted by academics at Wharton and Baylor.

Study ID sspp-2023-0031-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Marissa Sharif, Shannon Duncan
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Sept. 12, 2023


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Sharif, Marissa, and Shannon Duncan. 2023. "Predicting Nudge Field Experiment Results (by online subscriptions company)." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/a28ab2



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Abstract

Approximately 65% of the world’s working poor depend on agriculture for survival (World Bank, 2016). Yet, the acceleration of climate change makes it increasingly difficult for households to derive stable returns from their agricultural investments. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather shocks, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in most parts of the world. This research uses a randomized control trial to test a new method of adaptation for farmers: long-range weather forecasts. We leverage recent advances in atmospheric science to bring high-quality forecasts about when the monsoon will arrive to farmers. We estimate the impact of these forecasts on farmers’ beliefs about when the monsoon will arrive, consumption, agricultural investments and production, assets and household finance, and migration decisions (among others).

Study ID sspp-2023-0024-v1
Authors Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane, Harshil Sahai
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023


Citation
Burlig, Fiona, Jina, Amir, Kelley, Erin, Lane, Gregory, and Harshil Sahai. 2023. "The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 14. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ex4ae4



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Abstract

Take this short screening survey to learn about the Superforecaster Panel.

Study ID sspp-2023-0020-v1
Authors The Social Science Prediction Platform
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023


Citation
The Social Science Prediction Platform. 2023. "Interested in being a superforecaster? Click here." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 28. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ab44dz



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Abstract

You will see short summaries of three A/B tests and be asked to estimate the results of each (what % of users would choose each subscription option). We want to get people's estimates about the impact of different forms of choice architecture. The first two are field experiments that were conducted by a learning subscriptions company. The third is an online experiment conducted by academics at Wharton and Baylor.

Study ID sspp-2023-0028-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Marissa Sharif, Shannon Duncan
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 24, 2023


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Sharif, Marissa, and Shannon Duncan. 2023. "Predicting Field Experiment Results - Online Subscription Nudges." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 28. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/y48bca



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Abstract

Test Questions

Study ID sspp-2023-0035-v1
Authors Leo
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 15, 2023


Citation
Leo. 2023. "Test Questions." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dxfbyx



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Abstract

This project aims to understand the determinants of adoption of a new technology by firms in Bangladesh's leather goods and footwear industry. We will conduct an randomized control trial, providing managers with information in varying intensities about a more energy-efficient "servo" motor for stitching machines. We will test the extent to which providing information about (i) the ease of installation of energy-efficient motors on existing machines, and (ii) the associated electricity cost savings leads to (a) higher take-up of servo motors, (b) changes in the willingness to pay for servo motors, and (c) changes in beliefs about associated cost savings. We will also track the evolution of managers' beliefs and willingness to pay over time to understand the dynamics of learning about the new technology. Our results will shed light on how managers learn about new energy-efficient technologies and to what extent their reluctance to adopt new technologies is due to mistakes in information-processing versus a rational process of updating, given prior beliefs and noisy signals about the value of the new technologies.

Study ID sspp-2023-0021-v1
Authors Ritam Chaurey, Gaurav Nayyar, Siddharth Sharma, Eric Verhoogen
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date July 17, 2023


Citation
Chaurey, Ritam, Nayyar, Gaurav, Sharma, Siddharth, and Eric Verhoogen. 2023. "How Do Managers’ Beliefs about New Technologies Evolve? Informational Interventions and the Adoption of Energy-efficient Stitching Motors in Bangladesh." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/a2cffc



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Abstract

We have designed an experiment to study the welfare and labor market impacts of expanding job-displacement insurance in Ethiopia. A large ready-made garment factory in the Hawassa Industrial Park were laid off a large number of female workers. As is common in low-income countries, these workers will be eligible for a modest lump-sum severance pay and will not receive unemployment insurance. Recent research suggests that many of them will be unable to secure another job quickly, food security will deteriorate, and they will return to their homes in the countryside (Hardy et al., 2022). In this project, we will evaluate the impacts of offering (i) a scheme which pays 60 percent of the worker’s wage for 5 months, irrespective of employment status and (ii) a single lump-sum payment of the same value as the income support scheme. Through phone-based high-frequency surveys, we will study impacts on consumption, job-search, and employment outcomes. We will also look at broader impacts on migration decisions, mental health, and women empowerment. Finally, we will study how exposure to additional job-displacement insurance payments affects the demand for future insurance.

Study ID sspp-2023-0025-v1
Authors Girum Abebe, Stefano Caria, François Gerard, Lukas Hensel
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2023


Citation
Abebe, Girum, Caria, Stefano, Gerard, François, and Lukas Hensel. 2023. "Job displacement insurance in a lower-income country." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 20. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d2yaf4



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Abstract

The objective of this survey is to collect forecasts from scholars about the ability of experienced chess players to reason strategically.

Study ID sspp-2023-0012-v1
Authors Yuval Salant, Jörg Spenkuch
Discipline Economics
Field Game Theory, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2023


Citation
Salant, Yuval, and Jörg Spenkuch. 2023. "Depth of Reasoning among Chess Players." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4bec20



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Abstract

We are studying the impacts of the Great Recession on health and mortality in the United States. We want to collect your prediction of these impacts.

Study ID sspp-2023-0013-v1
Authors Amy Finkelstein, Matthew Notowidigdo, Frank Schilbach, Jonathan Zhang
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2023


Citation
Finkelstein, Amy, Notowidigdo, Matthew, Schilbach, Frank, and Jonathan Zhang. 2023. "Impact of Great Recession on Health and Mortality." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6a42a0



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Abstract

How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. This study provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0014-v1
Authors David Bernard, Dennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Johannes Haushofer, Michael Walker
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Egger, Dennis, Miguel, Edward, Haushofer, Johannes, and Michael Walker. 2023. "Long-run general equilbrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzy4az

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

Globally, there is a standard course of 5 vaccines over the first year of life. In Sierra Leone, 99% of children get the first vaccine, but only 69% of children complete all 5 vaccinations by the age of one. This study asks if we can increase timely and complete vaccination by allowing parents to show to others that they have vaccinated their child. Researchers introduced a signal in the form of coloured bracelets that children receive upon vaccination in Sierra Leone. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the signalling intervention. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0011-v1
Authors David Bernard, Anne Karing
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, and Anne Karing. 2023. "Long-run impacts of social signalling for vaccinations in Sierra Leone." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 9. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ceyfdf

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

In Uganda children in lower primary are often taught in English instead of their local language. An Ugandan education firm developed a program to improve literacy by teaching in the local language. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0003-v1
Authors David Bernard, Julie Buhl-Wiggers, Jason Kerwin, Ricardo Montero de la Piedra, Jeffrey Smith, Rebecca L. Thornton
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Buhl-Wiggers, Julie, Kerwin, Jason, Piedra, Ricardo Montero de la, Smith, Jeffrey, and Rebecca L. Thornton. 2023. "Long-run impacts of mother tongue instruction in Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b0zfbx

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

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Abstract

Business training programs are common in developing countries. They aim to increase the incomes of small business owners by teaching them basic business practices such as record-keeping, stock control, and marketing. A World Bank project in Lomé, the capital city of Togo, aimed to help businesses improve and grow their business by offering two different types of training, a traditional business training and a psychology-based personal initiative program. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the programs. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0005-v1
Authors David Bernard, Francisco Campos, Michael Frese, Markus Goldstein, Leonardo Iacovone, Hilary C. Johnson, David McKenzie, Mona Mensmann
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Campos, Francisco, Frese, Michael, Goldstein, Markus, Iacovone, Leonardo, Johnson, Hilary C., McKenzie, David, and Mona Mensmann. 2023. "Long-run impacts of personal initiative and business training in Togo." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/06c20z

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

Boarding schools are a form of education where students live and learn at the school. Although traditionally boarding schools were mostly for upper-class English and American families, there has been recent interest in using boarding schools to improve the progress of disadvantaged students. This study took place in France, with a boarding school which serves relatively high ability students from poor families. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of being randomly offered a spot to attend the boarding school. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0001-v1
Authors David Bernard, Luc Behaghel, Clément de Chaisemartin, Marc Gurgand
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Behaghel, Luc, Chaisemartin, Clément de, and Marc Gurgand. 2023. "Long-run impacts of boarding school in France." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/a66bzx

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

“Big-push” interventions are often seen as key for reducing persistent poverty, especially in Afghanistan which is one of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries in the world. By combining a package of different assets and services, the Targeting the Ultra Poor program (TUP) aims to lift households out of poverty. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0006-v1
Authors David Bernard, Yulia Belyajova, Aidan Coville, Guadalupe Bedoya, Thomas Escande
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Belyajova, Yulia, Coville, Aidan, Bedoya, Guadalupe, and Thomas Escande. 2023. "Long-run impacts of a Graduation program in Afghanistan." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ex6b00

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

Financial education is an important part of the curriculum in secondary education in many countries. However, the short and long-run effects of this education are subject to debate. Researchers in Spain launched a program “Finance for All” to improve financial knowledge among high schoolers. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0002-v1
Authors David Bernard, Olympia Bover, Laura Hospido, Margarita Machelett, Ernesto Villanueva
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Bover, Olympia, Hospido, Laura, Machelett, Margarita, and Ernesto Villanueva. 2023. "Long-run impacts of financial education in Spain." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2xfa0f

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

This survey is part of a project about migration in Senegal conducted by the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research based in Germany. The project aims to analyse factors that shape domestic migration decisions and behaviour. RWI carried out a baseline survey of 4,700 Men aged 18 to 40 in 145 rural villages during the planting season in September 2022, followed by a randomized controlled trial of migration-related interventions in November 2022. An endline survey is planned for April 2023 during the agricultural off-season. With this present survey, we are asking you to predict the effects of interventions that took place as part of RWI’s study.

Study ID sspp-2023-0010-v1
Authors Lucia Franzl, Cara Ebert, Bernd Beber
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date April 11, 2023


Citation
Franzl, Lucia, Ebert, Cara, and Bernd Beber. 2023. "Effects of a migration mentoring program in Senegal." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2cx4xe

Abstract

Business training programs are common in developing countries. They aim to increase the incomes of small business owners by teaching them basic business practices such as record-keeping, stock control, and marketing. A World Bank project in Lomé, the capital city of Togo, aimed to help businesses improve and grow their business by offering two different types of training, a traditional business training and a psychology-based personal initiative program. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of these programs. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0004-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2023


Citation
David Bernard. 2023. "Long-run impacts of personal initiative and business training in Togo." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 9. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cazxfz

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

We study the effect of contingent thinking on belief updating. One possible explanation for biased beliefs is that agents distort the underlying data generating process when updating their beliefs given a new piece of information. Engaging in contingent thinking — that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized — might affect the agents’ understanding of the data generating process, resulting in differences in belief updating. Through a series of online experiments, we aim to uncover and break down the effect of contingent thinking on belief distortions into two components: (1) hypothetical thinking (updating on a piece of not-yet-observed information) and (2) contrast reasoning (comparing multiple contingencies during the updating task).

Study ID sspp-2023-0007-v1
Authors Chiara Aina, Andrea Amelio, Katharina Brütt
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 17, 2023


Citation
Aina, Chiara, Amelio, Andrea, and Katharina Brütt. 2023. "Contingent Belief Updating." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0e0e68

Abstract

A burgeoning literature examines the impacts of psychosocial interventions on the economic outcomes and mobility of low-income populations. This randomized controlled trial (N=2,628) tests two different brief psychosocial intervention approaches with low-income women in rural Niger. One was grounded in building personal initiative and one in interpersonal initiative. Both interventions were delivered through brief videos and guided exercises. Impacts were measured on economic outcomes, including food security and women's business outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2022-0040-v1
Authors Catherine Thomas, Greg Walton, Hazel Markus, Patrick Premand, Thomas Bossuroy, Abdoulaye Sambo
Discipline Psychology
Field Development Economics, Social Psychology, Behavioral Science
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 28, 2023


Citation
Thomas, Catherine, Walton, Greg, Markus, Hazel, Premand, Patrick, Bossuroy, Thomas, and Abdoulaye Sambo. 2022. "Effects of 'Personal Initiative' and 'Interpersonal Initiative'." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ecc8z6



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Abstract

We are sending emails to U.S. city council members from (fictitious) students asking for internship advice. We are exploring the impact of mentioning one’s gender pronouns on city councilors’ willingness to respond to these career-related help requests.

Study ID sspp-2022-0047-v1
Authors Erika Kirgios
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 28, 2023


Citation
Erika Kirgios. 2022. "Predictions of Non-binary Identity Salience Audit Field Study." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/20x0xb



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Abstract

This survey is part of a project about migration in Senegal conducted by the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research based in Germany. The project aims to analyse factors that shape domestic migration decisions and behaviour. RWI carried out a baseline survey of 4,700 Men aged 18 to 40 in 145 rural villages during the planting season in September 2022 , followed by a randomized controlled trial of migration-related interventions in November 2022. An endline survey is planned for March 2023 during the agricultural off-season. With this present survey, we are asking you to predict the effects of interventions that took place as part of RWI’s study.

Study ID sspp-2023-0009-v1
Authors Bernd Beber, Cara Ebert, Lucia Franzl
Discipline Psychology, Sociology
Field Behavioral Insights, Demography
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 24, 2023


Citation
Beber, Bernd, Ebert, Cara, and Lucia Franzl. 2023. "Predicting the impact of mentoring sessions on individuals' migration behavior." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 21. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/yaze2c

Abstract

We are exploring whether sellers’ negotiation behavior varies based on the race and sexual orientation of potential buyers. Specifically, we are investigating whether sellers’ willingness to: (1) respond to inquiries from potential buyers, (2) engage in negotiation with potential buyers, and (3) lower their price point for potential buyers varies based on the race and sexual orientation of the potential buyer.

Study ID sspp-2022-0045-v1
Authors Erika Kirgios
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Erika Kirgios. 2022. "Craigslist Negotiation Predictions." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6c4y8c



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Abstract

A burgeoning literature examines the impacts of psychosocial interventions on the economic outcomes and mobility of low-income populations. This randomized controlled trial (N=2,628) tests two different brief psychosocial intervention approaches with low-income women in rural Niger. One was grounded in building personal initiative and one in interpersonal initiative. Both interventions were delivered through brief videos and guided exercises. Impacts were measured on economic outcomes, including food security and women's business outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2022-0041-v1
Authors Catherine Thomas, Greg Walton, Hazel Markus, Patrick Premand, Thomas Bossuroy, Abdoulaye Sambo
Discipline Psychology
Field Development Economics, Social Psychology, Behavioral Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Thomas, Catherine, Walton, Greg, Markus, Hazel, Premand, Patrick, Bossuroy, Thomas, and Abdoulaye Sambo. 2022. "Effects of 'Personal Initiative' and 'Interpersonal Initiative'." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fc242z

Abstract

With a record number of refugees moving across the globe, there is debate on how best to support refugees’ humanitarian needs while also ensuring the stability of host countries. The Syrian Refugee Life Study (S-RLS) uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the Norwegian Refugee Council Jordan's Urban Shelter Program. This evaluation seeks to estimate the direct and spillover effects of housing assistance on refugees and the Jordanian communities they live in.

Study ID sspp-2022-0038-v1
Authors Edward Miguel, Bailey Palmer, Sandra Rozo, Emma Smith, Sarah Stillman, Abdulrazzak Tamim
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Miguel, Edward, Palmer, Bailey, Rozo, Sandra, Smith, Emma, Stillman, Sarah, and Abdulrazzak Tamim. 2022. "Effect of Shelter Program on Refugees and Their Neighbors." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fxf6a8



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Abstract

This study seeks to understand public perceptions of academic research that involves predictions of individual race and ethnicity. We conduct a factorial survey experiment varying a number of research design features and examine respondents’ opinions toward different designs. By doing so, we hope to provide useful guides for scholars leveraging administrative data to understand the causes and consequences of racial and ethnic inequality.

Study ID sspp-2022-0039-v1
Authors Yamil Velez, Diana Da In Lee
Discipline Political Science
Field American Politics, Political Behavior
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 30, 2022


Citation
Velez, Yamil, and Diana Da In Lee. 2022. "Measuring lay perceptions of research ethics: how does the public feel about the use of administrative data?." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0x6xxz

Abstract

Although most economists agree on the importance of carbon pricing for transitioning to a decarbonized economy, policy makers often shy away from Pigouvian policies due to fear of voter backlash. Previous evidence suggests that people often reject carbon pricing because of misperceptions of its effectiveness, and distributional impact. In this case, informing the public about the policy merits could arguably increase policy acceptance. However, individuals may oppose carbon pricing because they believe that other people do not support it or do not approve of this. In this study, we ask: Does policy support respond more strongly to norm-based appeals or the perceived merit of a policy? We run a large-scale online survey experiment with a representative sample of 2,700 U.S. adults. Participants are randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions in a 2x2 design, each receiving different types of information through video interventions.

Study ID sspp-2022-0042-v1
Authors Stefania Innocenti, Ximeng Fang
Discipline Economics
Field Environment, Resource And Energy Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 13, 2022


Citation
Innocenti, Stefania, and Ximeng Fang. 2022. "The effect of norms and economic reasoning on support for carbon pricing." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzd0xd

Abstract

This research employs an artefactual framed-field experiment with current students at the investigating University to assess how representation affects individuals’ perceptions of their ability to and/or likelihood to pursue higher education and field-specific careers, as well as the academic aptitude of their peers. Participation is open to current University students across all degree levels and academic fields. Participants will view a video depicting a panel of notable academics. Treatments will vary the panel depicted with regards to the gender diversity of the academics shown. Participants will be asked a series of questions both before and after the video is shown to compare treatment effects. We assess the effects of representation in academia on students’ perceptions of their likelihood of pursuing further education. The effect of social identity is also assessed.

Study ID sspp-2022-0036-v1
Authors Tongzhe Li, Danielle Roy
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Sept. 26, 2022


Citation
Li, Tongzhe, and Danielle Roy. 2022. "Predictions - Effect of Representation in Higher Learning." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 26. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xeye6f

Abstract

In a recent literature review, Gladstone and Cimpiani (2021) indicate that practitioners and policymakers see role models as the “one-stop solution for increasing diversity in STEM” and other male-dominated fields. In this forecast, we are interested in learning how well people can predict the effect of a two lessons video-based role models intervention among high school students. It comprises evidence of two experiments gathering about 47,000 students in more than 1,100 schools.

Study ID sspp-2022-0033-v1
Authors Igor Asanov, Thomas Astebro, Guido Bünstorf, Bruno Crépon, Francisco Flores, David McKenzie, Mona Mensmann, Mathis Schulte
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 20, 2022


Citation
Asanov, Igor, Astebro, Thomas, Bünstorf, Guido, Crépon, Bruno, Flores, Francisco, McKenzie, David, Mensmann, Mona, and Mathis Schulte. 2022. "Effects of role models on promoting STEM and Entrepreneurship education." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4xb06f



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Abstract

In a recent literature review, Gladstone and Cimpiani (2021) indicate that practitioners and policymakers see role models as the “one-stop solution for increasing diversity in STEM” and other male-dominated fields. In this forecast, we are interested in learning how well people can predict the effect of a two lessons video-based role models intervention among high school students. It comprises evidence of two experiments gathering about 47,000 students in more than 1,100 schools.

Study ID sspp-2022-0031-v1
Authors Igor Asanov, Thomas Astebro, Guido Bünstorf, Bruno Crépon, Francisco Flores, David McKenzie, Mona Mensmann, Mathis Schulte
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date July 15, 2022


Citation
Asanov, Igor, Astebro, Thomas, Bünstorf, Guido, Crépon, Bruno, Flores, Francisco, McKenzie, David, Mensmann, Mona, and Mathis Schulte. 2022. "Effects of role models on promoting STEM and Entrepreneurship education." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xaz4e0



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Abstract

This study was done in collaboration with a large NGO which gives cash transfers directly to very poor households. To be eligible for a transfer, households had to live in homes with thatched roofs. Eligible households were given three cash transfers over six months, totalling $1871 USD. We ask you to forecast the 6 year impacts on eligible and ineligible households.

Study ID sspp-2022-0006-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run general equilibrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2c6dbb

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

Boarding schools are a form of education where students live and learn at the school. Although traditionally boarding schools were mostly for upper-class English and American families, there has been recent interest in using boarding schools to improve the progress of disadvantaged students. This study took place in France, with a boarding school which serves relatively high ability students from poor families. In this survey we ask you to make forecasts of the long-run 9 year impacts of being offered a place at a boarding school

Study ID sspp-2022-0005-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run impacts of boarding school in France." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d8cf4e

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

A Ugandan education firm developed a program to improve literacy by teaching in children's mother tongue. There are two versions of the program: full-cost and reduced-cost. We ask you to forecast the long-run impacts on test scores and school attendance.

Study ID sspp-2022-0007-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run impacts of mother tongue instruction in Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bb04b2

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

Middle school students in China took an entrance exam for high school admissions which fully determines the high schools’ preferences over the students. However, students need to apply to one of several high schools before knowing their exact exam scores. Thus they need to make their high-stakes school choices based on their exam score estimations. We conducted a survey with students to study their estimations. We ask you to make predictions about the differences between their estimated and actual scores, the differences between students’ recalled scores in a previous mock exam and their actual scores for that exam, and the relationship between the estimation and the recall.

Study ID sspp-2022-0032-v1
Authors Yiming Liu, Stephanie W. Wang
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date June 25, 2022


Citation
Liu, Yiming, and Stephanie W. Wang. 2022. "Predict beliefs about exam scores." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d0x20x

Abstract

We are conducting an empirical study on labor markets. We would love to elicit your expectations about the results of our analysis.

Study ID sspp-2022-0030-v1
Authors Zoe Cullen, Shengwu Li, Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Discipline Economics
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date June 24, 2022


Citation
Cullen, Zoe, Li, Shengwu, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. 2022. "Salary Benchmarking and Pay-Setting." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 6. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bd8e40

Abstract

Young men who have been formerly involved in conflict, drugs and crime are a potential threat to peace and development in Western African countries such as Liberia. An NGO which aimed to help men reintegrate into society offered two programs. The first program was eight weeks of group cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for 12 hours per week, aimed at treating harmful beliefs and behaviors by making people aware of and able to challenge their negative automatic patterns of thinking. The second program was a cash transfer of $200, approximately three months wages, which respondents could do what they wanted with. We ask you to forecast the long-run impacts of both programs.

Study ID sspp-2022-0008-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date May 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run impacts of cognitive behavioral therapy and cash in Liberia." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/60d4bd

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

We are currently conducting a study on how expectations about future government benefits affect human capital investment. We are collecting predictions on the results of our study.

Study ID sspp-2022-0004-v1
Authors Manasi Deshpande, Rebecca Dizon-Ross
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date April 19, 2022


Citation
Deshpande, Manasi, and Rebecca Dizon-Ross. 2022. "Study: Do Expectations About Future Government Benefits Affect Human Capital Investment?." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fe88yx



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Abstract

Thank you for your interest in this research! If you choose to participate, you will be asked to provide your predictions about Prolific Workers' opinions of a set of everyday people, objects, or experiences.

Study ID sspp-2022-0001-v1
Authors Linnea Gandhi, Ben Manning, Angela Duckworth, Daniel Kahneman
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2022


Citation
Gandhi, Linnea, Manning, Ben, Duckworth, Angela, and Daniel Kahneman. 2022. "Predicting Prolific Opinions." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ef08fc

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Flat rate for participation
Incentive Size $10.00
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

In DellaVigna and Linos (2021, ECTA), we obtained a comprehensive sample of all the Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) run by two large nudge units working with U.S. federal departments and cities from 2015-19. We found that the average nudge led to a statistically significant improvement of 1.4 percentage points (s.e.=0.3) in absolute take-up of the targeted outcome, or an 8.0% relative increase. This prior work did not keep track of how cities used the evidence from the RCTs after running the trials. How many of the nudges tested in the trials became adopted into government practice by these cities? And what predicts adoption? To answer these questions, we contacted all the U.S. cities that collaborated with the Behavioral Insights Team (BIT), which is one of the nudge units from the paper. This survey collects forecasts about the adoption of nudges by U.S. cities after conducting RCTs with the Behavioral Insights Team.

Study ID sspp-2022-0009-v1
Authors Stefano DellaVigna, Woojin Kim, Elizabeth Linos
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2022


Citation
DellaVigna, Stefano, Kim, Woojin, and Elizabeth Linos. 2022. "Predicting adoption of nudges in U.S. cities." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4bac6b

Abstract

Thank you for your interest in this survey. If you choose to participate, you will be asked to provide your predictions about others' opinions of a few people, objects, or experiences.

Study ID sspp-2022-0003-v1
Authors Linnea Gandhi, Ben Manning, Angela Duckworth, Daniel Kahneman
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 19, 2022


Citation
Gandhi, Linnea, Manning, Ben, Duckworth, Angela, and Daniel Kahneman. 2022. "Predict the Opinions of Other Prolific Workers." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/yz26az

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Flat rate for participation
Incentive Size $10.00
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

We study the results of a massive nationwide correspondence experiment sending more than 83,000 fictitious applications with randomized characteristics to geographically dispersed jobs posted by 108 of the largest U.S. employers.

Study ID sspp-2021-0029-v1
Authors Patrick Kline, Evan Rose, Christopher Walters
Discipline Economics
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 15, 2022


Citation
Kline, Patrick, Rose, Evan, and Christopher Walters. 2021. "Predicting Systemic Discrimination Among Large U.S. Employers." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/zc2ba6

Abstract

We design a series of information interventions aimed at highlighting the benefits and costs of efficiency in public spending, as well as reducing frictions in the search for low cost purchases, all with the ultimate objective of changing the institutional culture of efficiency within Public Services and thus reduce overspending in their public purchases. We implement different interventions depending on the level of responsibility within each treated service, i.e. whether the person is the Director of the PS (top-level or principal) or the person is a ``buyer'' (bottom-level or purchasing agent). The interventions consist of a combination of monthly reports with the performance of efficiency in public purchases at the buyer and service levels with new budget rules designed to punish next-year budget of services that incur in large overspending in the previous year. Central to our analysis is the role of beliefs about the benefits/costs of efficiency in public purchases, and the extent to which the top-bottom alignment of beliefs matters to increase the level of efficiency in public procurement.

Study ID sspp-2020-0015-v1
Authors Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler, Marcelo Olivares, Raimundo Undurraga
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2021


Citation
Celhay, Pablo, Gertler, Paul, Olivares, Marcelo, and Raimundo Undurraga. 2020. "Beliefs About Public Spending and Efficient Expenditures in Public Procurement Officers." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/x46yya



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Abstract

We designed a field experiment to explore households' support for taxation and redistribution. We designed an information-provision experiment with households who pay property taxes. We measure the households' support for taxation via survey data and by revealed-preferences via the households' decisions to appeal their property taxes. We examine two potential drivers of the support for taxation and the decision to protest property taxes: 1) The extent to which households benefit from the services that are funded through property taxes (more precisely, public schools), and 2) The extent to which the property taxes are not spent in the same community but shared with more disadvantaged communities (more precisely, recapture of property taxes).

Study ID sspp-2021-0023-v1
Authors Matias Giaccobasso, Brad C. Nathan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Alejandro Zentner
Discipline Economics
Field Public Economics, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2021


Citation
Giaccobasso, Matias, Nathan, Brad C., Perez-Truglia, Ricardo, and Alejandro Zentner. 2021. "Forecast Survey: "Support for Benefit-Based Taxation and Redistribution"." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2da64f



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Abstract

Is workplace sexual harassment chronically underreported? First, we assess whether workers report sexual harassment more selectively during recessions, when outside labor market options are limited. Second, we test whether less generous UI benefits create economic incentives for victims of workplace sexual harassment to remain silent.

Study ID sspp-2021-0027-v1
Authors Gordon Dahl, Matthew Knepper
Discipline Economics
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 20, 2021


Citation
Dahl, Gordon, and Matthew Knepper. 2021. "Reporting of Workplace Sexual Harassment." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/8dfdec



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Abstract

Research on decision-making has identified a number of robust violations of fundamental principles of rationality. This project studies two questions: 1. In which tasks do people tend to be aware of their errors, and in which tasks do they tend to be confident in their answers even when they are wrong? 2. Which types of errors get either filtered out or exacerbated in the aggregate once people interact with each other through institutions such as markets or organizations?

Study ID sspp-2021-0028-v1
Authors Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 17, 2021


Citation
Enke, Benjamin, Graeber, Thomas, and Ryan Oprea. 2021. "Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 6. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b04a0x



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Abstract

Freedom of inquiry is often considered to be the foundation of innovation. Does political pressure impact the direction of academic research? Academia in Mainland China provides an ideal setting for such an inquiry. Fostering innovation has been a central aim of the Chinese Communist Party, which recognizes the importance of technological progress for continued economic growth and has substantially increased funding for academic research during the past decades. We collect comprehensive data on the scientific publications of researchers in the leading 109 Chinese universities, and on leadership changes in these universities. We use Natural Language Processing methods to measure the similarity between faculty members’ and their leaders’ research portfolios. We then estimate the effects of new academic “leaders” (e.g., deans or department heads) on the type of research conducted by impacted faculty members across a large number of disciplines and Chinese universities.

Study ID sspp-2021-0024-v1
Authors Daron Acemoglu, David Y. Yang, Jie Zhou
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 31, 2021


Citation
Acemoglu, Daron, Yang, David Y., and Jie Zhou. 2021. "Political Pressure and the Direction of Research: Evidence from China’s Academia." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/c0b6z2

Abstract

Sierra Leone has maternal and child mortality rates that are among the highest in the world. In order to strengthen the provision of primary health care, Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS) created a national Community Health Worker Program in 2017. The program is organized around Peripheral Health Units (PHUs), small health facilities staffed with doctors, nurses, and midwives. Each village in the catchment area of a PHU is served by one Community Health Worker (CHW). Further, in every PHU, there is a supervisor whose job it is to enable the CHW’s work by training and advising them. We have run an RCT to understand how to best incentivize the community-health workers (CHW) and their supervisors. This study randomly varied whether a performance incentive of SLL 2,000 ($0.23) per household visit conducted by a CHW is (i) paid to the CHW, (ii) paid to the supervisor, or (iii) equally shared between the CHW and their supervisor. We will ask you to forecast how these interventions affect the number of household visits conducted by the CHWs, as well as the structural parameters that lead to these effects.

Study ID sspp-2021-0022-v1
Authors Erika Deserranno, Stefano Caria, Philipp Kastrau, Gianmarco Leon-Ciliotta
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2021


Citation
Deserranno, Erika, Caria, Stefano, Kastrau, Philipp, and Gianmarco Leon-Ciliotta. 2021. "Predicting the Effect of Financial Incentives on Household Visits by Health Workers." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cb2c0c



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Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate customer preferences in the field with an online platform where cash paying consumers can shop and book a provider for medical procedures. I address whether customers discriminate against doctors on the basis of race and to what extent is such discrimination statistical. Literature has suggested two fundamental mechanisms for discrimination: statistical discrimination and taste-based discrimination . Taste-based discrimination theory suggests that customers chooses as if there is a dis-utility of associating with a particular racial group. Even with perfect information, taste- based discrimination cannot be eliminated. Unlike taste-based discrimination, statistical discrimination can be eliminated when enough information is shared to signal quality and therefore the value of a prospective purchase to customers, because they can rely on information other than race to update their beliefs about the doctor. A critical test for whether discrimination is statistical in nature is to see whether the introduction of an economically relevant signal closes the racial gap. I seek to distinguish between these forms of discrimination by comparing the willingness to pay penalty for Black or Asian doctors in the case where no quality signals are provided against the case where quality signals are provided. (J71, I11, L15, L86, M31)

Study ID sspp-2021-0025-v1
Authors Alex Chan
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics, Labor Economics, Experimental Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 14, 2021


Citation
Alex Chan. 2021. "Customer Discrimination and Quality Signals: A Field Experiment with Healthcare Shoppers." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2azzy2

Abstract

In 2009-2012, Blattman, Jamison, and Sheridan, worked with the Liberian NGO Network for Empowerment & Progressive Initiative (NEPI) and the research non-profit Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) to study the impact of a short, inexpensive, intensive therapy program informed by cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) on young men’s violent and criminal behavior. Cash alone and therapy alone initially reduced crime and violence, but effects dissipated over time. When cash followed therapy, crime and violence decreased dramatically for at least a year (Blattman et al., 2017). Based on these promising findings, as well as those of a similar program in Chicago (Heller et al., 2016), CBT interventions have been replicated around the globe in efforts to reduce violence and criminal behavior. There is no long term evidence on these programs, however. This study is a ten-year follow-up in order to track long-term effects of the CBT and the cash interventions in Liberia.

Study ID sspp-2021-0020-v1
Authors Christopher Blattman, Sebastian Chaskel, Julian Jamison, Margaret Sheridan
Discipline Economics, Psychology, Political Science
Field Applied Econometrics, Development Economics, Econometrics, Health Economics, Experimental Economics, Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date July 18, 2021


Citation
Blattman, Christopher, Chaskel, Sebastian, Jamison, Julian, and Margaret Sheridan. 2021. "The Long Run Effects of a Program Aimed At Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4e4000

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Discrete: Fixed payment if forecast is within bounds
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


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Abstract

Does democracy save lives? Do female political leaders respond more effectively to public health crises? Are ethnically diverse societies more vulnerable to COVID-19? How do you think political and social features of countries relate to cumulative COVID-19 deaths? We have compiled statistical models that predict future COVID-19 mortality across and within countries. Which models do you think are true? This survey is anonymous and no personally identifying information will be visible to the research team, even if you log in.

Study ID sspp-2021-0015-v1
Authors Miriam Golden, Alex Scacco, Kim Yi Dionne, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Macartan Humphreys, Sampada KC, Eva Vivalt, Haoyu Zhai
Discipline Political Science
Field Comparative Politics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date June 4, 2021


Citation
Golden, Miriam, Scacco, Alex, Dionne, Kim Yi, Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto, Humphreys, Macartan, KC, Sampada, Vivalt, Eva, and Haoyu Zhai. 2021. "Crowdsourcing Political Models of Covid-19 Mortality." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fz04yc



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Abstract

1-2 minute survey of your predictions. What happens when people are repeatedly exposed to the same image? Research on "Hedonic Adaptation" or "Satiation" suggests people's evaluations of images become more neutral the more they are exposed to these images. In contrast, research on the "Mere Exposure Effect" suggests people's evaluations of images become more positive or extreme (less neutral) the more they are exposed to them. What do you think happens when people are repeatedly exposed to images?

Study ID sspp-2020-0019-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva
Discipline Psychology
Field Social Psychology, Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date May 31, 2021


Citation
Kellen Mrkva. 2020. "Hedonic Adaptation and Mere Exposure - Your Predictions About Replicability." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 22. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4dezae

Abstract

Effective HIV antiretroviral therapy has now become more widely available in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in certain settings, adherence to antiretroviral therapy is poor, reducing its effectiveness. In this study we investigate several methods targeting different behavioral biases to improve antiretroviral adherence in patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection in a community in Mozambique.

Study ID sspp-2021-0004-v1
Authors Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Jared Stolove, Dean Yang, Hang Yu
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Health Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date April 30, 2021


Citation
Mahumane, Arlete, IV, James Riddell, Stolove, Jared, Yang, Dean, and Hang Yu. 2021. "Improving HIV Medication Adherence in Mozambique." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 21. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/46f06d

Abstract

This survey is being conducted to collect predictions of field experts about effects of reminders and deadlines on businesses’ take-up of a profitable business opportunity. We would like to document the extent of agreement or disagreement among experts in the field to contextualize the findings of the study.

Study ID sspp-2021-0003-v1
Authors Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins, Ulrike Malmendier, Waldo Ojeda
Discipline Economics
Field Financial Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date April 30, 2021


Citation
Gertler, Paul, Higgins, Sean, Malmendier, Ulrike, and Waldo Ojeda. 2021. "How do firms decide whether to adopt profitable business practices?." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 21. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d00yd8



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Abstract

Prior work, largely in low-income countries, has argued that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; funds given regardless of a recipient’s behavior) can improve the outcomes of people in poverty. Despite widespread enthusiasm for UCTs, there is little work testing their effectiveness in high-income countries. In this trial, we will randomly assign 5,000 low-income individuals in the United States to receive either no cash, $500, or $2,000 in a one-time, lump-sum payment. We will then measure the effects of these transfers on financial, psychological, cognitive capacity, and physical health outcomes at different time intervals, from one week to several months. These comprehensive data will allow us to assess not only whether UCTs are effective at improving outcomes, but also establish which outcomes they improve the most, how much money is needed to generate the effects, and how long those effects last.

Study ID sspp-2020-0016-v1
Authors Oliver Hauser, Jon Jachimowicz, Julian Jamison, Ania Jaroszewicz
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Development Economics, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date April 15, 2021


Citation
Hauser, Oliver, Jachimowicz, Jon, Jamison, Julian, and Ania Jaroszewicz. 2020. "A Randomized Controlled Trial Varying Unconditional Cash Transfer Amounts in the US." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/zfy6bx

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on absolute forecast accuracy
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 1.0%

Abstract

Effective HIV antiretroviral therapy has now become more widely available in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in certain settings, adherence to antiretroviral therapy is poor thus reducing its effectiveness. In this study we investigate several methods targeting different behavioral biases to improve antiretroviral adherence in patients newly diagnosed with HIV infection in a community in Mozambique.

Study ID sspp-2021-0001-v1
Authors Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Jared Stolove, Dean Yang, Hang Yu
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Health Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2021


Citation
Mahumane, Arlete, IV, James Riddell, Stolove, Jared, Yang, Dean, and Hang Yu. 2021. "Increasing HIV Medication Adherence in Mozambique." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6x6a4b



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Abstract

How much are different measures of overprecision related to one another? This study focuses on overprecision, the excessive faith that you know the truth. Overprecision is the most durable and pervasive form of overconfidence, and has been studied using several different measures. Rarely does one study employ more than one of these measures. We want your forecast for how closely they are related!

Study ID sspp-2021-0006-v1
Authors Don Moore, Randall Hale
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2021


Citation
Moore, Don, and Randall Hale. 2021. "Comparing Measures of Overprecision." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/8z4ac4



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Abstract

How much are different measures of overprecision related to one another? This study focuses on overprecision, the excessive faith that you know the truth. Overprecision is the most durable and pervasive form of overconfidence, and has been studied using several different measures. Rarely does one study employ more than one of these measures. We want your forecast for how closely they are related!

Study ID sspp-2021-0007-v1
Authors Don Moore, Randall Hale
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2021


Citation
Moore, Don, and Randall Hale. 2021. "Comparing Measures of Overprecision (Corrected)." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xb68xb



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Abstract

Our team developed a nudge tournament testing 7 different messages that promote mask-wearing among a large representative sample of Republicans and Democrats in the United States. We invite you and your colleagues to forecast the effectiveness of these nudge messages in a 20-minute survey. For making accurate predictions, you will receive raffle tickets that will increase your chances of winning a $50 Amazon Gift Card (10 total).

Study ID sspp-2021-0008-v1
Authors Eugen Dimant, Michele Gelfand, Dylan Pieper, Anna Dreber
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Insights
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date March 17, 2021


Citation
Dimant, Eugen, Gelfand, Michele, Pieper, Dylan, and Anna Dreber. 2021. "Forecasting the results of a nudge tournament testing 7 different messages that promote mask-wearing among a large representative sample of Republicans and Democrats in the United States." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 22. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xzd8c6

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Discrete: Fixed payment if forecast is within bounds
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 1.0%

Abstract

The experiment is part of a European Union H2020 funded project on collective agri-environmental schemes which investigates cooperation among farmers. We collect data for one baseline and four treatments of a public goods game. The baseline is a linear voluntary contribution mechanism public goods game with four players, endowed with 50 Euro. Contributions are doubled and redistributed equally. The four treatments are 1) heterogeneous initial endowments, 2) leading-by-example, 3) a social norm treatment, emphasizing earlier cooperative solutions, and 4) highlighting the social optimum.

Study ID sspp-2021-0002-v1
Authors Jens Rommel, Julian Sagebiel, Christoph Schulze
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 15, 2021


Citation
Rommel, Jens, Sagebiel, Julian, and Christoph Schulze. 2021. "Expert forecasts on cooperation of German farmers in a public good game." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xac486

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on absolute forecast accuracy
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 1.0%

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Abstract

We are seeking expert predictions on the effects of our interventions in the following study: We seek to support the Mozambican COVID-19 response by following up on a study sample of a trial in Mozambique. Sample households were contacted by phone and administered several rounds of surveys regarding COVID-19 knowledge, beliefs, and behavior. We randomized novel over-the-phone interventions to test if we could encourage social distancing by accelerating changes in community norms and improve knowledge about COVID-19 via incentives and tailored feedback. Human subjects review: #HUM00191506 at the University of Michigan.

Study ID sspp-2020-0018-v1
Authors James Allen IV, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Tanya Rosenblat, Dean Yang, Hang Yu.
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Jan. 31, 2021


Citation
IV, James Allen, Mahumane, Arlete, IV, James Riddell, Rosenblat, Tanya, Yang, Dean, and Hang Yu.. 2020. "Combatting COVID-19 in Mozambique." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 23. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dx4zec

Abstract

1,000 respondents from a representative sample of the US population made choices between pairs of options. Please predict how the respondents chose in each of the pairs below.

Study ID sspp-2020-0017-v1
Authors Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie Wang, Colin Camerer
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 30, 2020


Citation
Chapman, Jonathan, Snowberg, Erik, Wang, Stephanie, and Colin Camerer. 2020. "Binary Choices Involving Risk and/or Loss." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/byxzy8



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Abstract

Since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, the international community has struggled to respond to the resulting refugee crisis in a way that provides for refugees’ and host communities’ long-term needs. As a result, many non-profits and intergovernmental organizations have begun implementing programs that support both the refugees and host communities. As part of a larger study on Syrian refugee welfare in Jordan, our team is conducting a randomized control trial (RCT) that evaluates the effectiveness of one such program. The Norwegian Refugee Council’s Urban Shelter Program subsidizes housing for Syrian refugees through the renovation of Jordanian-owned properties in exchange for lower rents for refugees. Our study will use a broad range of outcomes to discern the mechanisms by which providing stable shelter access may improve recipients’ economic welfare, as well as their physical and mental health. These findings could have major implications for the design of similar programs, and of public policies that foster refugee integration and reduce persistent socio-economic and health inequalities.

Study ID sspp-2020-0008-v1
Authors Samuel Leone, Edward Miguel, Sandra Rozo, Emma Smith
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 30, 2020


Citation
Leone, Samuel, Miguel, Edward, Rozo, Sandra, and Emma Smith. 2020. "Effect of Shelter Program on Refugee Wellbeing." Social Science Prediction Platform. August 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/a6482y



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Abstract

Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely risky for the migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3,702 young men from 391 settlements in the Gambia will test three different approaches designed to reduce risky, irregular migration. The first is to provide potential migrants with better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route. The second intervention is to also provide a second safer migration alternative, by adding information and assistance for migration to neighboring Senegal. The third approach is to provide an alternative path at home, by providing vocational skill training in addition to the information about irregular migration. Key outcomes will be actions towards migrating the “backway”, migration to Senegal, and overall well-being.

Study ID sspp-8dac8c-T
Authors Tijan L. Bah, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert, David McKenzie
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2020


Citation
Bah, Tijan L., Batista, Catia, Gubert, Flore, and David McKenzie. 2020. "Irregular Migration from the Gambia." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/8dac8c



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Abstract

The Black Lives Matter protests have increased interest in whether and how issues of ethnicity and race are studied in economics and other social sciences. We are interested in understanding perceptions of how much race-related research has been published in economics journals, whether this has changed over time, and how it compares to the amount of race-related research published in other social sciences. We have used an algorithm to identify such research in published articles in economics, sociology, political science and psychology from 1980 to 2020. The findings of this study – alongside these perceptions – will be presented at a special session of the Econometric Society World Congress on August 19th, titled, ‘What can economics do for racial justice?’ Researchers from any discipline, as well as non-academics, are encouraged to complete the five minute survey.

Study ID sspp-2020-0005-v1
Authors Arun Advani, Elliott Ash, David Cai, Imran Rasul
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 17, 2020


Citation
Advani, Arun, Ash, Elliott, Cai, David, and Imran Rasul. 2020. "The study of race in economics, and other social sciences." Social Science Prediction Platform. August 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dybafd



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Abstract

How do policy-makers and practitioners in international development weigh evidence from impact evaluations? For example, would they prefer evidence from a randomized control trial done in a different region or evidence from a quasi-experimental or observational study done in their own country? You are invited to predict the results of an experiment at World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank impact evaluation workshops.

Study ID sspp-2020-0002-v1
Authors Aidan Coville, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 17, 2020


Citation
Coville, Aidan, and Eva Vivalt. 2020. "How Do Policy-Makers Weigh Evidence?." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b4ea2c



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