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Rationalizing Firm Forecasts

Study ID sspp-2025-0017-v1

General Details

Project Rationalizing Firm Forecasts
Study ID sspp-2025-0017-v1
Study Title Rationalizing Firm Forecasts
Authors Nicholas Bloom, Mihai Codreanu, Robert Fletcher
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) May 31, 2025
Discipline Management
Field Other
Country United States
Abstract
This project examines a panel survey of quarterly sales forecasts for 6,000 firms. Firm CEOs are asked to predict future revenues that are matched to assess accuracy. We are interested in how data use, incentives, forecasting training, and scenario thinking can affect forecasts. We will be donating $100 to a charity on behalf of one randomly selected forecaster.

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Flat rate for participation
Incentive Size $100.00
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 1.0%




Citation
Bloom, Nicholas, Codreanu, Mihai, and Robert Fletcher. 2025. "Rationalizing Firm Forecasts." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 29. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/8a48xa