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Leaderboard statistics only include registered users.

Users' names are anonymized by default. To make your name public on these leaderboards, uncheck 'Hide your name' on your profile here.

Mean Absolute Error

The average absolute difference between predicted and true values, normalized by baseline standard deviation. Lower scores indicate better prediction accuracy. Each prediction is first standardized by dividing by the baseline standard deviation before calculating the error.

To be ranked in this metric, users must have made at least 10 numeric forecasts with reported results across at least 5 studies.

Relative Error

The average difference between a user's predictions and the mean prediction for each question. A negative value means the user's predictions were better than average. Each prediction is first standardized by the baseline standard deviation.

🏆 Top Forecasters BETA 🏆

by Number of Predictions as of April 15, 2025, 03:38 p.m. UTC
Rank Name Predictions Studies
1 Anonymous 633 77
2 Anonymous 616 24
3 Carlotta Varriale 584 69
4 Anonymous 575 71
5 Anonymous 544 72
6 Anonymous 508 61
7 Anonymous 473 60
8 Anonymous 452 53
9 Anonymous 414 48
10 Anonymous 396 5