Survey will open in a new window or redirect momentarily, please keep this tab open! If the survey does not open, please enable popups and refresh the page.

Status:

Dismiss

Leaderboard statistics only include registered users.

Users' names are anonymized by default. To make your name public on these leaderboards, uncheck 'Hide your name' on your profile here.

Mean Absolute Error

The average absolute difference between predicted and true values, normalized by baseline standard deviation. Lower scores indicate better prediction accuracy. Each prediction is first standardized by dividing by the baseline standard deviation before calculating the error.

To be ranked in this metric, users must have made at least 10 numeric forecasts with reported results across at least 5 studies.

Relative Error

The average difference between a user's predictions and the mean prediction for each question. A negative value means the user's predictions were better than average. Each prediction is first standardized by the baseline standard deviation.

🏆 Top Forecasters BETA 🏆

by Number of Predictions as of May 06, 2025, 12:43 a.m. UTC
Rank Name Predictions Studies
1 Anonymous 784 24
2 Anonymous 672 77
3 Carlotta Varriale 650 73
4 Anonymous 614 71
5 Anonymous 583 72
6 Anonymous 571 27
7 Anonymous 564 5
8 Anonymous 510 62
9 Anonymous 473 60
10 Anonymous 452 53