Newsletters

Banner: News from the social science prediction platform.
We're excited to announce the Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award! Designed to recognize, encourage, and reward exceptional use of forecasting in research, this award with prizes of up to $10,000, along with supplementary runner-up prizes. We will consider all projects posted on the platform between July 1st and December 31st, 2024. Further details can be found here; follow our X (@socscipredict) for updates. 
Open Surveys 
The following surveys are collecting responses.

  • Impact of a Psychosocial Training and Cash Transfer Program (15 min, closing Aug. 4, 2024) Theresa Beltramo, Antonia Delius, Edward Miguel, Utz Pape, Ibrahima Sarr, Nistha Sinha, and Precious Zikhali invite predictions on the interaction between economic and psychosocial well-being of camp-based refugees in Kenya.
  • Online Retail Field Experiments on Nudges (5 min, closing Aug. 14, 2024) Kellen Mrkva invites predictions for the impact of different forms of nudges and whether small changes to an online webpage influence choices.
  • Air Quality and Conference Engagement (10 mins, closing Sept. 1, 2024) Ludovica Gazze, Allen Huang, Santiago Saavedra, and Mattie Toma invite predictions associated with air quality at conferences.
  • Water Nudge (5 mins, closing Sept. 24, 2024) Maria Espinosa-Goded, Macario Rodriguez-Entrena, and Jesus Barreiro-Hurlé invite predictions on the effects of treatments in Andalusia, Spain, that promote savings in domestic water consumption.
  • Wage Inequality and Preference (15 mins, closing Sept. 30, 2024) Lionel Page, Philip Grossman, Catherine Eckel, Dan Goldstein, and Christopher Hoy invite predictions on people’s beliefs about wage inequality and support for redistribution.
  • Women's Action Committees and Local Political Participation (20 mins, closing Sept. 30, 2024) Lauren Young invite predictions on the effect of women's action committees on political participation in various countries. A financial incentive is available. 
  • National Financial Education Campaign via Television and Social Media (15 mins, closing Sept. 30, 2024) Tim Kaiser, Annamaria Lusardi, Alessia Sconti, and Bilal Zia invite predictions on the channels through which a national financial education campaign in Italy affects change. 
  • What Motivates Biodiversity Conservation? (15 mins, closing Sept. 30, 2024) Anna Nordén, Elisabeth Gsottbauer, and Miquel Correa invite predictions on whether money or social norms motivate biodiversity conservation. A financial incentive is available.   
Don't forget about the SSPP Superforecaster Panel: Since the SSPP has launched our new Superforecaster Panel, which is comprised of 90+ academic researchers who will regularly take surveys posted on the platform, each survey has received over 60 predictions! 

We strongly encourage you to take this opportunity to collect forecasts for your next research project! If you need any help getting started, our Social Science Prediction Platform Survey Guide contains an abundance of helpful information, from what can be forecast to how to design your Qualtrics survey. As always, our team is eager and available to help out during this process if you need; please feel free to contact team@socialscienceprediction.org for assistance. 
Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.

The SSPP is an initiative of the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS), which works to strengthen research integrity by promoting transparency, reproducibility, and openness across the social sciences. BITSS is part of the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), headquartered at UC Berkeley.
Banner: News from the social science prediction platform.
We're excited to announce new collaborations with the Russell Sage Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. As individuals and teams are awarded new research grants from these foundations, they will be invited to create a survey for their study on the SSPP. We are looking forward to seeing the interesting research this will bring, stay tuned so you don't miss out!
Open Surveys 
The following surveys are collecting responses.

  • Equivalence Testing in Economics (15 min, closing April 30, 2024) Jack Fitzgerald seeks predictions about equivalence testing failure rates in a sample of 125 null claims from 81 articles recently published in top economics journals.
  • Noncompetes Field Experiment (10 min, closing May 31, 2024) Evan Starr, Bo Cowgill, and Brandon Freiberg solicit predictions on the causal effect of non-compete work agreements on worker outcomes.
  • The Endowment Effect in the U.S. Population (10 min, closing June 30, 2024) Colin Camerer, Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, and Erik Snowberg invite predictions for the relationship between Willingness-to-Accept and Willingness-to-Pay for lotteries.
Don't forget about the SSPP Superforecaster Panel: Since the SSPP has launched our new Superforecaster Panel, which is comprised of 90+ academic researchers who will regularly take surveys posted on the platform, each survey has received over 60 predictions! First payments are going out soon for panelists.

We highly encourage you to take this opportunity to collect predictions for your project and consider publishing a survey on the SSPP! If you need any help getting started, our Social Science Prediction Platform Survey Guide contains an abundance of helpful information from what can be forecast to how to design your Qualtrics survey. As always, our team is eager and available to help out during this process if you need.
Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.

The SSPP is an initiative of the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS), which works to strengthen research integrity by promoting transparency, reproducibility, and openness across the social sciences. BITSS is part of the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), headquartered at UC Berkeley.
Banner: News from the social science prediction platform.
We're excited to announce a new collaboration with the Journal for Development Economics! Now, when authors are accepted to the JDE's pre-results review (registered reports) track, they are encouraged on the Author Guidelines page to submit their study to the SSPP before outcome data are available. We are encouraged by this, as we hope it will not only bring more interesting studies into the platform, but also represent a first step towards institutionalizing a path for collecting predictions and encouraging other journals to do the same.

Update about the SSPP Superforecaster Panel: Since the SSPP has launched our new Superforecaster Panel, which is comprised of 90+ academic researchers who will regularly take surveys posted on the platform, each survey has received over 60 predictions!

We highly encourage you to take this opportunity to collect predictions for your project and consider publishing a survey on the SSPP! If you need any help getting started, our Social Science Prediction Platform Survey Guide contains an abundance of helpful information from what can be forecast to how to design your Qualtrics survey. As always, our team is eager and available to help out during this process if you need.
Open Surveys 
The following surveys are collecting responses.
Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.

The SSPP is an initiative of the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS), which works to strengthen research integrity by promoting transparency, reproducibility, and openness across the social sciences. BITSS is part of the Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), headquartered at UC Berkeley.
Banner: News from the social science prediction platform.
On October 13, 2023, over 50 people gathered in Berkeley, CA for the Forecasting in the Social Sciences Workshop, which brought together leaders from across academic disciplines to present new research findings, share knowledge, and continue charting a path forward for prediction in the social sciences.

The event featured Anna Dreber (Stockholm School of Economics) as the key note speaker, who gave a talk on predicting replication outcomes and the questions we need to consider: Which results can we trust? What happens when you give the same data to many researchers? How do their analyses differ, and are they predictable?

Throughout the rest of the day, we heard from a fantastic lineup of speakers: Don Moore (UC Berkeley), Nicholas Otis (UC Berkeley), Linnea Gandhi (University of Pennsylvania), Dean Yang (University of Michigan), SSPP Principal Investigator Eva Vivalt (University of Toronto), Edward Miguel (UC Berkeley), David Bernard (Paris School of Economics), and Anya Samek (UC San Diego). Their research spanned topics like forecasting in Behavioral Experiments, Development Economics, Organizations, and forecasting long-run outcomes.

We closed the day with a panel moderated by SSPP Principal Investigator Stefano DellaVigna (UC Berkeley) and featuring Don Green (Columbia University), Yan Chen (University of Michigan), and Seth Blumberg (Google), which discussed the challenges and directions forward for forecasting.

You can find the presentations slides here.


Reminder: The SSPP has launched our new Superforecaster Panel, which is comprised of 90+ academic researchers who will regularly take surveys posted on the platform. There is no limit to the number of surveys you can post and no criteria about how long you must wait between each survey. 

We highly encourage you to take this opportunity to collect predictions for your project and consider publishing a survey on the SSPP! If you need any help getting started, our Social Science Prediction Platform Survey Guide contains an abundance of helpful information from what can be forecast to how to design your Qualtrics survey. As always, our team is eager and available to help out during this process if you need.
Open Surveys 
The following surveys are collecting responses.
Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.
Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform
We're excited to announce an opportunity to join the Forecasting in the Social Sciences Workshop, hosted by the Social Science Prediction Platform team and the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS). The all-day workshop will be held on Friday, October 13 near UC Berkeley at the David Brower Center. Join us as we bring together leaders from across disciplines to present new research, share knowledge, and continue charting a path forward for prediction in the social sciences! If you're interested in attending, please fill out this form.http

Reminder: Join the SSPP Superforecaster Panel! This program allows you to actively contribute to social science research by providing predictions of research results while also earning monetary rewards. As a panel member, your commitment involves participating in monthly surveys while helping to shape the field's future. See below to apply and reach out to support@socialscienceprediction.org should you have any questions!

Open Surveys 
The following surveys are collecting responses.

Submit a project!

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org. If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please feel free to share this newsletter with them. 

Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.
Banner: News from the social science prediction platform.

 Announcing the New Superforecaster Panel

We're excited to announce an opportunity to join the Social Science Prediction Platform's Superforecaster Panel. This program allows you to actively contribute to social science research by providing predictions of research results while also earning monetary rewards. As a panel member, your commitment involves participating in monthly surveys while helping to shape the field's future. 

Eligibility extends to graduate students, faculty, and researchers. Our two-stage incentive program will provide you with a total of $1,000 upon completion. We're aiming to assemble a team of 50 to 100 forecasters for this exclusive panel. The initial application takes less than five minutes. Click here to apply. 

Don't miss your chance to become a superforecaster! Visit this page for more information on the program, and reach out to support@socialscienceprediction.org should you have any questions.

Haven't heard from us in a while? We recently updated our contact list. If would like to modify your email preferences please visit this link.

Open Surveys from the SSPP

The following surveys are collecting responses:
 • Depth of Reasoning among Chess Players (Closing June 30, 2023). Yuval Salant and Jörg Spenkuch evaluate the ability of experienced chess players to reason strategically.
 • How Do Managers’ Beliefs about New Technologies Evolve? Informational Interventions and the Adoption of Energy-efficient Stitching Motors in Bangladesh (Closing July 17rd, 2023). Ritam Chaurey, Gaurav Nayyar, Siddharth Sharma, and Eric Verhoogen study the determinants of the adoption of new technology by firms in Bangladesh.

You can also stay up to date on the latest projects by following us on Twitter @SocSciPrediction.

Submit a New Project

We’re accepting new projects! Visit our Survey Guide or FAQs for more information. If you’re not sure how to start, contact us at support@socialscienceprediction.org  with questions.

Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform
What are the common use cases for the SSPP? What have we learned about the accuracy of predictions so far? Learn more in a presentation by SSPP team members Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt, and Nicholas Otis given at the 10th BITSS Annual Meeting. Click the image below to watch and see the slides here.
Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt, and Nicholas Otis presented news on the SSPP at the recent BITSS Annual Meeting.
Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.
Spread the word about the SSPP

Know someone interested in collecting or contributing predictions? Share this newsletter or the video below with them! Follow @SocSciPrediction on Twitter for updates.
Video presenting the motivation for, and the main features of the Social Science Prediction Platform.
Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.
Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform
Who uses the SSPP and what benefits have they experienced?

Since launching last July, the SSPP has welcomed over 1,800 users and 19 projects that have collected over 1,600 predictions. We’re excited to share what we’ve learned about who is using the platform, how researchers want to contribute, collect, or share predictions, and which features have been most helpful in our new post on the BITSS blog. You can also learn more about generalizability challenges in policy-oriented research and how the SSPP can better inform decision-making in this interview with PI Eva Vivalt on a recent episode of the “Hear This Idea” podcast.
The Forecasting Challenge closes June 7

We are offering $25 Amazon gift cards to the first 200 graduate students who complete 10 surveys. Submit your predictions now!
Presenting the SSPP in a nutshell 

Watch and share our new video explaining the types of questions for which researchers can collect forecasts on the SSPP and the benefits of collecting predictions systematically, such as mitigating publication bias and hindsight bias, and improving study design. Click the image below to watch.
Video presenting the motivation for, and the main features of the Social Science Prediction Platform.
New project results are available

You can now access the results of several recently closed projects and see how they compare to your predictions and the average prediction. Log into your SSPP profile and click on the links below to access:
Graph showing the distribution of predictions for a project by Rommel et al (2021).
Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.
Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform
In case you missed it, Nick Otis, Eva Vivalt, Arun Advani, and Stefano DellaVigna discussed lessons from the SSPP’s first six months and shared results from two projects that collected predictions on the platform at the recent BITSS Annual Meeting. Watch the panel discussion here and find slides here. Read on for results from the completed projects and links to new and open surveys. 
Stefano Dellavigna, Eva Vivalt, Nick Otis, and Arun Advani discuss the SSPP at the BITSS Annual Meeting.
Results from two projects are now available

You can now access the results of two recently closed projects and see how they compare to your predictions and the average prediction. Click on the links below to access:
The Forecasting Challenge is still open

Congratulations to the graduate students who have completed the Forecasting Challenge so far! Learn more about how to complete the challenge and win your own gift card here.
Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.
Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.
Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform
Four new projects are now accepting predictions (more below)! If you’re a graduate student, weighing in on these projects can get you three surveys closer to completing the
Forecasting Challenge (read more about the Challenge and how to receive a $25 Amazon gift card here). Please make sure to complete your user profile to indicate your eligibility.

In response to your requests, we’ve also made it possible for project teams to host open and closed projects on permanent pages, so you can easily share and cite your survey instruments.

We want to hear from you! 

Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.

Open Surveys 

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

Submit a project!

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please feel free to share this newsletter with them. 
Since launching the SSPP in July, we’ve welcomed over 2,000 researchers, faculty, and students like you to our platform to predict the results of social science experiments and invite predictions for new studies. Your projects and predictions have focused on diverse topics ranging from the persistence of mental health interventions in India to the perception of race-related research in economics. You can now weigh in on five open projects (details below). Additional highlights include:

  • 216 faculty users, 437 students, and 196 researchers—you can update your profile information here if you haven’t filled out this information yet
  • 6 open surveys and 2 completed surveys
  • 1,337 total predictions and 167 average predictions per project
We hope your experience on the SSPP has been enlightening and useful. The platform is still young—we appreciate your questions and suggestions, which you can send to support@socialscienceprediction.org. As our community grows, we also hope you can help us spread the word.
Platform Updates

  • The Forecasting Challenge is now open! Graduate students who respond to 10 or more surveys will receive a $25 Amazon gift card. Please make sure to complete your user profile to indicate your eligibility. Read more here.
  • Project leads: You can now upload results from your completed projects so that others can see how things panned out after surveys have closed. Those responded to your surveys can also see how their predictions compare to these results.
  • For those who have elected to receive regular email digests, we expect to send our first messages next month. These will include open surveys that fit the interests you indicated in your profile. If you haven’t signed up for these yet, make sure to do so here.
  • We've created a guide containing a number of tools to help new users navigate the platform.Programming a forecasting survey? We've developed a Qualtrics template, and highlight some simple ways to improve your surveys.
Open Surveys

The following surveys are currently collecting responses. Estimates for how long surveys will take have been provided by the researchers.
Submit a project!

We’re accepting new projects! Visit our Survey Guide or FAQs for more information. If you’re not sure how to start, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org with questions.