The social sciences have witnessed a dramatic shift in the last 25 years. Rigorous research designs have drastically improved the credibility of research findings. However, while research designs have improved, less progress has been made in relating experimental findings to the views of the broader scientific community and policy-makers. Individual researchers have begun to gather predictions about the effects they might find in their studies, as this information can be helpful in interpreting research results. Still, we could learn more from predictions if they were elicited in a coordinated, systematic way.
This prediction platform will allow for the systematic collection and assessment of expert forecasts of the effects of untested social programs. In turn, this should help both policy makers and social scientists by improving the accuracy of forecasts, allowing for more effective decision-making and improving experimental design and analysis.