Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We are researchers at Stanford University and Carnegie Mellon University running an incentivized experiment to investigate whether and how much people value satisfying others' preferences when the others' beliefs about whether those preferences are satisfied are fixed and won't change. In this study, we ask you to predict our main outcomes. Participation should take about five to ten minutes.

Study ID sspp-2023-0032-v1
Authors Gonzalo Arrieta, Lukas Bolte
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 1, 2023


Citation
Arrieta, Gonzalo, and Lukas Bolte. 2023. "Forecasting experimental participants' value for satisfying preferences when beliefs are fixed." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 27. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/e4zf46



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Abstract

You will see short summaries of three A/B tests and be asked to estimate the results of each (what % of users would choose each of the two subscription options). We want to get people's estimates about the impact of different forms of choice architecture. The first two are field experiments that were conducted by a learning subscriptions company. The third is an online experiment conducted by academics at Wharton and Baylor.

Study ID sspp-2023-0031-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Marissa Sharif, Shannon Duncan
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioural Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Sept. 12, 2023


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Sharif, Marissa, and Shannon Duncan. 2023. "Predicting Nudge Field Experiment Results (by online subscriptions company)." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/a28ab2



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Abstract

Take this short screening survey to learn about the Superforecaster Panel.

Study ID sspp-2023-0020-v1
Authors The Social Science Prediction Platform
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023


Citation
The Social Science Prediction Platform. 2023. "Interested in being a superforecaster? Click here." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 28. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ab44dz



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Abstract

Approximately 65% of the world’s working poor depend on agriculture for survival (World Bank, 2016). Yet, the acceleration of climate change makes it increasingly difficult for households to derive stable returns from their agricultural investments. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather shocks, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in most parts of the world. This research uses a randomized control trial to test a new method of adaptation for farmers: long-range weather forecasts. We leverage recent advances in atmospheric science to bring high-quality forecasts about when the monsoon will arrive to farmers. We estimate the impact of these forecasts on farmers’ beliefs about when the monsoon will arrive, consumption, agricultural investments and production, assets and household finance, and migration decisions (among others).

Study ID sspp-2023-0024-v1
Authors Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane, Harshil Sahai
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023


Citation
Burlig, Fiona, Jina, Amir, Kelley, Erin, Lane, Gregory, and Harshil Sahai. 2023. "The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 14. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ex4ae4



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Abstract

You will see short summaries of three A/B tests and be asked to estimate the results of each (what % of users would choose each subscription option). We want to get people's estimates about the impact of different forms of choice architecture. The first two are field experiments that were conducted by a learning subscriptions company. The third is an online experiment conducted by academics at Wharton and Baylor.

Study ID sspp-2023-0028-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Marissa Sharif, Shannon Duncan
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioural Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 24, 2023


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Sharif, Marissa, and Shannon Duncan. 2023. "Predicting Field Experiment Results - Online Subscription Nudges." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 28. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/y48bca



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