Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

A review of evidence about complementarity, defined as happening when multiple interventions have more-than-additive effects on outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2026-0011-v1
Authors Aaditya Mattoo, Anna Tompsett, Eddy (Weijian) Zou
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2026


Citation
Mattoo, Aaditya, Tompsett, Anna, and Eddy (Weijian) Zou. 2026. "Complementarity." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 21. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fee0e0



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Abstract

How do employers think about hybrid work? How do those views shape pay, productivity expectations, and hiring decisions? This study is about workplace arrangements and evaluates brief, realistic scenarios about recruitment and compensation.

Study ID sspp-2026-0005-v1
Authors Yaming Cao, Sarra Ben Yahmed, Daniel Erdsiek, Melanie Arntz, Davud Rostam-Afschar
Discipline Economics, Sociology, Management
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2026


Citation
Cao, Yaming, Yahmed, Sarra Ben, Erdsiek, Daniel, Arntz, Melanie, and Davud Rostam-Afschar. 2026. "Employers’ beliefs about hybrid work." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/c8bbbx



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Abstract

This study will compare overconfidence in humans and large language models. The key measure will elicit certainty in the form of a belief distribution. A distribution with a smaller mean absolute deviation (MAD) implies greater certainty. A reported distribution with smaller MAD than the true distribution implies overprecision: excessive certainty.

Study ID sspp-2026-0010-v1
Authors Don Moore
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 5, 2026


Citation
Don Moore. 2026. "Overconfidence in people and LLMs." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bazbaa



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Abstract

This study examines how a large institutional investor’s coal divestment affected targeted firms. We ask you to predict its impact on their emissions and stock returns.

Study ID sspp-2026-0003-v1
Authors Marco Castelluccio
Discipline Economics
Field Environment, Resource And Energy Economics, Financial Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) May 31, 2026


Citation
Marco Castelluccio. 2026. "Divestment and Target Firms’ Environmental Performance." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4xf06b



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Abstract

This study conducts a randomized controlled trial among approximately 600 residential water customers in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, who had paid their water bills exclusively at bank branches for at least six consecutive months. Households were randomly assigned to one of three groups: a control group receiving no intervention, an information treatment providing step-by-step digital payment instructions for two consecutive billing cycles, or a subsidy treatment offering a 50% discount on electronic bill payment for two consecutive billing cycles. The study measures whether and how these interventions affect digital payment adoption, using administrative records from the Addis Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority (AAWSA).

Study ID sspp-2026-0007-v1
Authors Tsega Adego, Joseph Levine, Abdulrazzak Tamim
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Environment, Resource And Energy Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) May 11, 2026


Citation
Adego, Tsega, Levine, Joseph, and Abdulrazzak Tamim. 2026. "Information, Incentives, and Digital Water Bill Payment: Evidence from Ethiopia." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ba6c6d



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