Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We plan to conduct an experiment in which we ask Prolific participants (N=800) to make a hypothetical risky choice by either "following their head" or "following their heart." We will ask you to predict how the "head" vs. "heart" manipulation affects participants' likelihood of choosing the risky option (50% chance of $100) over the sure option ($15 for sure).

Study ID sspp-2026-0024-v1
Authors Amanda Geiser, Ellen Evers
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 31, 2026


Citation
Geiser, Amanda, and Ellen Evers. 2026. "Risk Aversion – "Following Your Head" vs. "Following Your Heart"." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 8. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4zdcya



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Abstract

This study uses an online survey to better understand how people think about government social programs and public policy, and how research evidence affects those views.

Study ID sspp-2026-0017-v1
Authors Raissa Fabregas
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 15, 2026


Citation
Raissa Fabregas. 2026. "How Does Evidence Shape Policy Demand?." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 14. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22fz2b

Abstract

Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? We are currently accepting applications to join our Social Science Prediction Platform Forecasting Panel, which started in 2023. In this survey we will ask you a few short questions about your background and interest in the Forecasting Panel. The survey should take 3-5 minutes to complete.

Study ID sspp-2026-0018-v1
Authors Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Other
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 14, 2026


Citation
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Eva Vivalt. 2026. "Apply to join the SSPP Forecasting Panel!." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ddcf4a



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Abstract

We are working on a project studying the impacts of SNAP sweetened drinks restrictions on SNAP participants' consumption of these drinks. We would like to contrast our findings with forecasts from experts in health economics, labor economics, public economics, and behavioral economics. In this study, we used Numerator purchase data to track household soft drink consumption 12 months before and 6 months after the implementation date of sweetened drink restriction policy in each state.

Study ID sspp-2026-0025-v1
Authors Hunt Allcott, Amy Finkelstein, Anna Grummon, Matt Notowidigdo
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 1, 2026


Citation
Allcott, Hunt, Finkelstein, Amy, Grummon, Anna, and Matt Notowidigdo. 2026. "Impacts of SNAP Sweetened Drinks Restrictions." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4zyy04

Abstract

This survey collects expert forecasts on the effect of Ramadan, the Islamic lunar month of fasting, on armed conflict and peaceful protest in predominantly Muslim countries. Forecasters predict the direction and percentage change in each outcome during Ramadan months relative to non-Ramadan months.

Study ID sspp-2026-0012-v1
Authors Humoyun Abdumavlon
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Development Economics, Comparative Politics, Political Behavior
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 31, 2026


Citation
Humoyun Abdumavlon. 2026. "Ramadan, Armed Conflict, and Peaceful Protest in Predominantly Muslim Countries." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/f2z0by



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