Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

1,000 respondents from a representative sample of the US population made choices between pairs of options. Please predict how the respondents chose in each of the pairs below.

Study ID sspp-2020-0017-v1
Authors Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie Wang, Colin Camerer
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 30, 2020

Abstract

Since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011, the international community has struggled to respond to the resulting refugee crisis in a way that provides for refugees’ and host communities’ long-term needs. As a result, many non-profits and intergovernmental organizations have begun implementing programs that support both the refugees and host communities. As part of a larger study on Syrian refugee welfare in Jordan, our team is conducting a randomized control trial (RCT) that evaluates the effectiveness of one such program. The Norwegian Refugee Council’s Urban Shelter Program subsidizes housing for Syrian refugees through the renovation of Jordanian-owned properties in exchange for lower rents for refugees. Our study will use a broad range of outcomes to discern the mechanisms by which providing stable shelter access may improve recipients’ economic welfare, as well as their physical and mental health. These findings could have major implications for the design of similar programs, and of public policies that foster refugee integration and reduce persistent socio-economic and health inequalities.

Study ID sspp-2020-0008-v1
Authors Samuel Leone, Edward Miguel, Sandra Rozo, Emma Smith
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 30, 2020

Abstract

Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely risky for the migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3,702 young men from 391 settlements in the Gambia will test three different approaches designed to reduce risky, irregular migration. The first is to provide potential migrants with better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route. The second intervention is to also provide a second safer migration alternative, by adding information and assistance for migration to neighboring Senegal. The third approach is to provide an alternative path at home, by providing vocational skill training in addition to the information about irregular migration. Key outcomes will be actions towards migrating the “backway”, migration to Senegal, and overall well-being.

Study ID sspp-8dac8c-T
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2020

Abstract

How do policy-makers and practitioners in international development weigh evidence from impact evaluations? For example, would they prefer evidence from a randomized control trial done in a different region or evidence from a quasi-experimental or observational study done in their own country? You are invited to predict the results of an experiment at World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank impact evaluation workshops.

Study ID sspp-2020-0002-v1
Authors Aidan Coville, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 17, 2020