Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We study the effect of contingent thinking on belief updating. One possible explanation for biased beliefs is that agents distort the underlying data generating process when updating their beliefs given a new piece of information. Engaging in contingent thinking — that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized — might affect the agents’ understanding of the data generating process, resulting in differences in belief updating. Through a series of online experiments, we aim to uncover and break down the effect of contingent thinking on belief distortions into two components: (1) hypothetical thinking (updating on a piece of not-yet-observed information) and (2) contrast reasoning (comparing multiple contingencies during the updating task).

Study ID sspp-2023-0007-v1
Authors Chiara Aina, Andrea Amelio, Katharina Brütt
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 17, 2023


Citation
Aina, Chiara, Amelio, Andrea, and Katharina Brütt. 2023. "Contingent Belief Updating." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 16. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0e0e68

Abstract

A burgeoning literature examines the impacts of psychosocial interventions on the economic outcomes and mobility of low-income populations. This randomized controlled trial (N=2,628) tests two different brief psychosocial intervention approaches with low-income women in rural Niger. One was grounded in building personal initiative and one in interpersonal initiative. Both interventions were delivered through brief videos and guided exercises. Impacts were measured on economic outcomes, including food security and women's business outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2022-0040-v1
Authors Catherine Thomas, Greg Walton, Hazel Markus, Patrick Premand, Thomas Bossuroy, Abdoulaye Sambo
Discipline Psychology
Field Development Economics, Social Psychology, Behavioural Science
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 28, 2023


Citation
Thomas, Catherine, Walton, Greg, Markus, Hazel, Premand, Patrick, Bossuroy, Thomas, and Abdoulaye Sambo. 2022. "Effects of 'Personal Initiative' and 'Interpersonal Initiative'." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ecc8z6



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Abstract

We are sending emails to U.S. city council members from (fictitious) students asking for internship advice. We are exploring the impact of mentioning one’s gender pronouns on city councilors’ willingness to respond to these career-related help requests.

Study ID sspp-2022-0047-v1
Authors Erika Kirgios
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioural Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 28, 2023


Citation
Erika Kirgios. 2022. "Predictions of Non-binary Identity Salience Audit Field Study." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/20x0xb



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Abstract

This survey is part of a project about migration in Senegal conducted by the RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research based in Germany. The project aims to analyse factors that shape domestic migration decisions and behaviour. RWI carried out a baseline survey of 4,700 Men aged 18 to 40 in 145 rural villages during the planting season in September 2022 , followed by a randomized controlled trial of migration-related interventions in November 2022. An endline survey is planned for March 2023 during the agricultural off-season. With this present survey, we are asking you to predict the effects of interventions that took place as part of RWI’s study.

Study ID sspp-2023-0009-v1
Authors Bernd Beber, Cara Ebert, Lucia Franzl
Discipline Psychology, Sociology
Field Behavioral Insights, Demography
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Feb. 24, 2023


Citation
Beber, Bernd, Ebert, Cara, and Lucia Franzl. 2023. "Predicting the impact of mentoring sessions on individuals' migration behavior." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 21. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/yaze2c

Abstract

A burgeoning literature examines the impacts of psychosocial interventions on the economic outcomes and mobility of low-income populations. This randomized controlled trial (N=2,628) tests two different brief psychosocial intervention approaches with low-income women in rural Niger. One was grounded in building personal initiative and one in interpersonal initiative. Both interventions were delivered through brief videos and guided exercises. Impacts were measured on economic outcomes, including food security and women's business outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2022-0041-v1
Authors Catherine Thomas, Greg Walton, Hazel Markus, Patrick Premand, Thomas Bossuroy, Abdoulaye Sambo
Discipline Psychology
Field Development Economics, Social Psychology, Behavioural Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Thomas, Catherine, Walton, Greg, Markus, Hazel, Premand, Patrick, Bossuroy, Thomas, and Abdoulaye Sambo. 2022. "Effects of 'Personal Initiative' and 'Interpersonal Initiative'." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fc242z