Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

Research on decision-making has identified a number of robust violations of fundamental principles of rationality. This project studies two questions: 1. In which tasks do people tend to be aware of their errors, and in which tasks do they tend to be confident in their answers even when they are wrong? 2. Which types of errors get either filtered out or exacerbated in the aggregate once people interact with each other through institutions such as markets or organizations?

Study ID sspp-2021-0028-v1
Authors Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 17, 2021


Citation
Enke, Benjamin, Graeber, Thomas, and Ryan Oprea. 2021. "Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 6. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b04a0x



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Abstract

Freedom of inquiry is often considered to be the foundation of innovation. Does political pressure impact the direction of academic research? Academia in Mainland China provides an ideal setting for such an inquiry. Fostering innovation has been a central aim of the Chinese Communist Party, which recognizes the importance of technological progress for continued economic growth and has substantially increased funding for academic research during the past decades. We collect comprehensive data on the scientific publications of researchers in the leading 109 Chinese universities, and on leadership changes in these universities. We use Natural Language Processing methods to measure the similarity between faculty members’ and their leaders’ research portfolios. We then estimate the effects of new academic “leaders” (e.g., deans or department heads) on the type of research conducted by impacted faculty members across a large number of disciplines and Chinese universities.

Study ID sspp-2021-0024-v1
Authors Daron Acemoglu, David Y. Yang, Jie Zhou
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Oct. 31, 2021


Citation
Acemoglu, Daron, Yang, David Y., and Jie Zhou. 2021. "Political Pressure and the Direction of Research: Evidence from China’s Academia." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/c0b6z2

Abstract

Sierra Leone has maternal and child mortality rates that are among the highest in the world. In order to strengthen the provision of primary health care, Sierra Leone’s Ministry of Health and Sanitation (MoHS) created a national Community Health Worker Program in 2017. The program is organized around Peripheral Health Units (PHUs), small health facilities staffed with doctors, nurses, and midwives. Each village in the catchment area of a PHU is served by one Community Health Worker (CHW). Further, in every PHU, there is a supervisor whose job it is to enable the CHW’s work by training and advising them. We have run an RCT to understand how to best incentivize the community-health workers (CHW) and their supervisors. This study randomly varied whether a performance incentive of SLL 2,000 ($0.23) per household visit conducted by a CHW is (i) paid to the CHW, (ii) paid to the supervisor, or (iii) equally shared between the CHW and their supervisor. We will ask you to forecast how these interventions affect the number of household visits conducted by the CHWs, as well as the structural parameters that lead to these effects.

Study ID sspp-2021-0022-v1
Authors Erika Deserranno, Stefano Caria, Philipp Kastrau, Gianmarco Leon-Ciliotta
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2021


Citation
Deserranno, Erika, Caria, Stefano, Kastrau, Philipp, and Gianmarco Leon-Ciliotta. 2021. "Predicting the Effect of Financial Incentives on Household Visits by Health Workers." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cb2c0c



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Abstract

Our goal is to collect predictions of experts about the effects of interventions to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We have not yet analyzed the data on vaccination uptake. Your predictions will help us to contextualize the findings of our experiment.

Study ID sspp-2021-0021-v1
Authors Pol Campos-Mercade, Armando Meier, Stephan Meier, Devin Pope, Florian Schneider, Erik Wengström
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 15, 2021


Citation
Campos-Mercade, Pol, Meier, Armando, Meier, Stephan, Pope, Devin, Schneider, Florian, and Erik Wengström. 2021. "Behavioral interventions and vaccination uptake." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 28. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/de0c42



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Abstract

In this paper, I evaluate customer preferences in the field with an online platform where cash paying consumers can shop and book a provider for medical procedures. I address whether customers discriminate against doctors on the basis of race and to what extent is such discrimination statistical. Literature has suggested two fundamental mechanisms for discrimination: statistical discrimination and taste-based discrimination . Taste-based discrimination theory suggests that customers chooses as if there is a dis-utility of associating with a particular racial group. Even with perfect information, taste- based discrimination cannot be eliminated. Unlike taste-based discrimination, statistical discrimination can be eliminated when enough information is shared to signal quality and therefore the value of a prospective purchase to customers, because they can rely on information other than race to update their beliefs about the doctor. A critical test for whether discrimination is statistical in nature is to see whether the introduction of an economically relevant signal closes the racial gap. I seek to distinguish between these forms of discrimination by comparing the willingness to pay penalty for Black or Asian doctors in the case where no quality signals are provided against the case where quality signals are provided. (J71, I11, L15, L86, M31)

Study ID sspp-2021-0025-v1
Authors Alex Chan
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics, Labor Economics, Experimental Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 14, 2021


Citation
Alex Chan. 2021. "Customer Discrimination and Quality Signals: A Field Experiment with Healthcare Shoppers." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 15. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2azzy2