Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

Improving small-business access to bank loans is often cited as a way of accelerating economic growth. Even though government subsidies for small business loans exist in over 100 low and middle-income countries, very few businesses apply. We investigate how small-business managers interact with bank loan officers, who gate-keep the loan application process, by running a series of field experiments in Pakistan. Participate in our expert survey to predict the points where the firms struggled to overcome search and negotiation frictions with the bank!

Study ID sspp-2026-0031-v1
Authors Emma Zhang
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Oct. 1, 2026


Citation
Emma Zhang. 2026. "Do small businesses avoid the bank, or do loan officers refuse to lend." Social Science Prediction Platform. August 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/czxby4

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 1.0%

Abstract

We measure the labor productivity of manufacturing firms in the United States and India using establishment microdata (the U.S. Census of Manufactures; India's Annual Survey of Industries and unorganized-manufacturing surveys). This short survey (about 5 minutes) asks you to predict how value added per worker compares between the two countries.

Study ID sspp-2026-0029-v1
Authors Nick Bloom, Pete Klenow, Megha Patnaik, Shelby Buckman, Mert Akan
Discipline Economics
Field Macroeconomics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Sept. 30, 2026


Citation
Bloom, Nick, Klenow, Pete, Patnaik, Megha, Buckman, Shelby, and Mert Akan. 2026. "Manufacturing Productivity: U.S. vs. India." Social Science Prediction Platform. August 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4yfcxy



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Abstract

I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a given region around zero. I specifically evaluate how often the models defending these null claims can significantly bound their estimates beneath conventional effect size benchmarks. This survey asks you to make predictions and judgments about equivalence testing failure rates in this sample.

Study ID sspp-2026-0023-v1
Authors Jack Fitzgerald, Giovanni Orlando, Arjen van Witteloostuijn
Discipline Management
Field Empirical Research Methodology
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Sept. 15, 2026


Citation
Fitzgerald, Jack, Orlando, Giovanni, and Arjen van Witteloostuijn. 2026. "The Impact of Journal Involvement on Availability of Replication Materials." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/yc8cdx



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Abstract

We plan to conduct an experiment in which we ask Prolific participants (N=800) to make a hypothetical risky choice by either "following their head" or "following their heart." We will ask you to predict how the "head" vs. "heart" manipulation affects participants' likelihood of choosing the risky option (50% chance of $100) over the sure option ($15 for sure).

Study ID sspp-2026-0024-v1
Authors Amanda Geiser, Ellen Evers
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 31, 2026


Citation
Geiser, Amanda, and Ellen Evers. 2026. "Risk Aversion – "Following Your Head" vs. "Following Your Heart"." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 8. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4zdcya



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Abstract

This study uses an online survey to better understand how people think about government social programs and public policy, and how research evidence affects those views.

Study ID sspp-2026-0017-v1
Authors Raissa Fabregas
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 15, 2026


Citation
Raissa Fabregas. 2026. "How Does Evidence Shape Policy Demand?." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 14. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22fz2b