Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We are working on a project studying the impacts of SNAP sweetened drinks restrictions on SNAP participants' consumption of these drinks. We would like to contrast our findings with forecasts from experts in health economics, labor economics, public economics, and behavioral economics. In this study, we used Numerator purchase data to track household soft drink consumption 12 months before and 6 months after the implementation date of sweetened drink restriction policy in each state.

Study ID sspp-2026-0025-v1
Authors Hunt Allcott, Amy Finkelstein, Anna Grummon, Matt Notowidigdo
Discipline Economics
Field Health Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 1, 2026


Citation
Allcott, Hunt, Finkelstein, Amy, Grummon, Anna, and Matt Notowidigdo. 2026. "Impacts of SNAP Sweetened Drinks Restrictions." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4zyy04

Abstract

This survey collects expert forecasts on the effect of Ramadan, the Islamic lunar month of fasting, on armed conflict and peaceful protest in predominantly Muslim countries. Forecasters predict the direction and percentage change in each outcome during Ramadan months relative to non-Ramadan months.

Study ID sspp-2026-0012-v1
Authors Humoyun Abdumavlon
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Development Economics, Comparative Politics, Political Behavior
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 31, 2026


Citation
Humoyun Abdumavlon. 2026. "Ramadan, Armed Conflict, and Peaceful Protest in Predominantly Muslim Countries." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/f2z0by



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Abstract

We are collecting predictions from experts about the results of a randomized controlled trial studying self-selection into financial literacy education. Your responses will help us understand how well experts can predict experimental results.

Study ID sspp-2026-0008-v1
Authors Elaine Shen, Junru Lyu, Laila Voss
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 25, 2026


Citation
Shen, Elaine, Lyu, Junru, and Laila Voss. 2026. "Financial Literacy Education Forecast Survey." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 2. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/468z80



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Abstract

This survey is part of a study on relative income mobility in Norway over the life-cycle ("intra-generational mobility"). Here, relative income mobility means changes in a person’s position in the income distribution relative to peers born in a similar year (for example, moving from the middle to the top of your age group, or vice versa).

Study ID sspp-2026-0019-v1
Authors Marco Ranaldi, Joel Buhler, Roberto Iacono
Discipline Economics
Field Public Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 21, 2026


Citation
Ranaldi, Marco, Buhler, Joel, and Roberto Iacono. 2026. "Capital and Labor Income Mobility." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/80x6c0

Abstract

We conducted a field experiment that examined the effectiveness of various messaging strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in an online setting in the United States. We will ask you to predict the conversion rates of different prompts. Survey is not available on mobile devices and takes ~12 minutes.

Study ID sspp-2026-0016-v1
Authors Craig Fox, Megan Weber, Craig Brimhall
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 10, 2026


Citation
Fox, Craig, Weber, Megan, and Craig Brimhall. 2026. "Field Experiment Promoting Voter Registration Checks." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 4. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bdz644