Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

With a record number of refugees moving across the globe, there is debate on how best to support refugees’ humanitarian needs while also ensuring the stability of host countries. The Syrian Refugee Life Study (S-RLS) uses a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the Norwegian Refugee Council Jordan's Urban Shelter Program. This evaluation seeks to estimate the direct and spillover effects of housing assistance on refugees and the Jordanian communities they live in.

Study ID sspp-2022-0038-v1
Authors Edward Miguel, Bailey Palmer, Sandra Rozo, Emma Smith, Sarah Stillman, Abdulrazzak Tamim
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Miguel, Edward, Palmer, Bailey, Rozo, Sandra, Smith, Emma, Stillman, Sarah, and Abdulrazzak Tamim. 2022. "Effect of Shelter Program on Refugees and Their Neighbors." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fxf6a8



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Abstract

A burgeoning literature examines the impacts of psychosocial interventions on the economic outcomes and mobility of low-income populations. This randomized controlled trial (N=2,628) tests two different brief psychosocial intervention approaches with low-income women in rural Niger. One was grounded in building personal initiative and one in interpersonal initiative. Both interventions were delivered through brief videos and guided exercises. Impacts were measured on economic outcomes, including food security and women's business outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2022-0041-v1
Authors Catherine Thomas, Greg Walton, Hazel Markus, Patrick Premand, Thomas Bossuroy, Abdoulaye Sambo
Discipline Psychology
Field Development Economics, Social Psychology, Behavioural Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Thomas, Catherine, Walton, Greg, Markus, Hazel, Premand, Patrick, Bossuroy, Thomas, and Abdoulaye Sambo. 2022. "Effects of 'Personal Initiative' and 'Interpersonal Initiative'." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fc242z

Abstract

We are exploring whether sellers’ negotiation behavior varies based on the race and sexual orientation of potential buyers. Specifically, we are investigating whether sellers’ willingness to: (1) respond to inquiries from potential buyers, (2) engage in negotiation with potential buyers, and (3) lower their price point for potential buyers varies based on the race and sexual orientation of the potential buyer.

Study ID sspp-2022-0045-v1
Authors Erika Kirgios
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioural Science
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Dec. 31, 2022


Citation
Erika Kirgios. 2022. "Craigslist Negotiation Predictions." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6c4y8c



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Abstract

This study seeks to understand public perceptions of academic research that involves predictions of individual race and ethnicity. We conduct a factorial survey experiment varying a number of research design features and examine respondents’ opinions toward different designs. By doing so, we hope to provide useful guides for scholars leveraging administrative data to understand the causes and consequences of racial and ethnic inequality.

Study ID sspp-2022-0039-v1
Authors Yamil Velez, Diana Da In Lee
Discipline Political Science
Field American Politics, Political Behavior
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 30, 2022


Citation
Velez, Yamil, and Diana Da In Lee. 2022. "Measuring lay perceptions of research ethics: how does the public feel about the use of administrative data?." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 7. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0x6xxz

Abstract

Although most economists agree on the importance of carbon pricing for transitioning to a decarbonized economy, policy makers often shy away from Pigouvian policies due to fear of voter backlash. Previous evidence suggests that people often reject carbon pricing because of misperceptions of its effectiveness, and distributional impact. In this case, informing the public about the policy merits could arguably increase policy acceptance. However, individuals may oppose carbon pricing because they believe that other people do not support it or do not approve of this. In this study, we ask: Does policy support respond more strongly to norm-based appeals or the perceived merit of a policy? We run a large-scale online survey experiment with a representative sample of 2,700 U.S. adults. Participants are randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions in a 2x2 design, each receiving different types of information through video interventions.

Study ID sspp-2022-0042-v1
Authors Stefania Innocenti, Ximeng Fang
Discipline Economics
Field Environment, Resource And Energy Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 13, 2022


Citation
Innocenti, Stefania, and Ximeng Fang. 2022. "The effect of norms and economic reasoning on support for carbon pricing." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzd0xd