Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We elicit individual-level measures of Willingness-to-Accept and Willingness-to-Pay for lotteries from a representative sample of the U.S. population. We would like you to predict the relationship between the two!

Study ID sspp-2024-0009-v1
Authors Colin Camerer, Jonathan Chapman, Mark Dean, Pietro Ortoleva, Erik Snowberg
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Experimental Economics, Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2024


Citation
Camerer, Colin, Chapman, Jonathan, Dean, Mark, Ortoleva, Pietro, and Erik Snowberg. 2024. "The Endowment Effect in the U.S. Population." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4fea6c

Abstract

The Wave I Ghana Financial Incentive trial confirmed that financial incentives have a positive effect on COVID-19 vaccine intentions, reported vaccination status and verified vaccination status. Wave II provides an opportunity to understand whether this financial incentive effect generalizes to other types of health behavior: Does a similar financial incentive design with tuberculosis screening produce similar positive results? The Wave I trial was designed to identify any spillover effects across treatment arms or on untreated individuals within treated communities. We found no evidence of negative spillover effects of cash incentives on individuals who received no cash compensations. An unanswered question is whether the financial incentives affect within-subject behavior. Wave II examines the willingness of those who received financial incentives in the initial TB screening treatment to adopt similar preventative health behaviors six months later. Wave II is also designed to evaluate the relative impact of financial incentives compared to simple informational reminders. The current study is a pilot for Wave II,

Study ID sspp-2024-0011-v1
Authors Raymond Duch
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date May 17, 2024


Citation
Raymond Duch. 2024. "Ghana Financial Incentives Trial Wave II: Spillover and Tuberculosis Screening." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d06c8x



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Abstract

I subject the models defending 135 null claims in 81 articles recently published in top economics journals to equivalence testing, which assesses whether an estimate is significantly bounded within a given region around zero. I specifically evaluate how often the models defending these null claims can significantly bound their estimates beneath conventional effect size benchmarks. This survey asks you to make predictions and judgments about equivalence testing failure rates in this sample.

Study ID sspp-2024-0008-v1
Authors Jack Fitzgerald
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics, Econometrics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date April 30, 2024


Citation
Jack Fitzgerald. 2024. "Equivalence Testing in Economics." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 26. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/602202



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Abstract

We examine the impact of ideological alignment between institutions disseminating research findings and policymakers on adopting evidence-based policies. We conduct a country-wide RCT in which two ideologically opposite prominent think tanks, two major newspapers, and a research institution with nonsalient ideology to communicate the exact same information about a low-cost, non-ideological, and effective policy based on published research findings to a large sample of Spanish local policymakers. We measure the direct impact of information on policy adoption. We propose a three-stage conceptual framework of policy adoption processes - selective exposure to information, belief updating, and policy implementation. Finally, we discuss the trade-offs between effectiveness and outreach when using ideologically aligned and non-salient institutions to disseminate research evidence and comment on the economic impact of ideological alignment for policy implementation.

Study ID sspp-2024-0007-v1
Authors Pedro Rey-Biel, Jorge García-Hombrados, Berkay Ózcan, Antonio Roldán-Monés, Ángel Martínez, Marcel Jansen
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Political Economics, Public Economics, Experimental Economics, Political Economy, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date April 12, 2024


Citation
Rey-Biel, Pedro, García-Hombrados, Jorge, Ózcan, Berkay, Roldán-Monés, Antonio, Martínez, Ángel, and Marcel Jansen. 2024. "Evidence based policy adoption and ideological alignment." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 11. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/z486dd



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Abstract

The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. We evaluate a large U.S. guaranteed income program implemented by two nonprofits. 1,000 individuals in the treatment group will receive $1,000 per month for 3 years, while a control group of 2,000 individuals who receive $50 per month will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Study ID sspp-2023-0050-v1
Authors Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2024


Citation
Bartik, Alex, Broockman, David, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2023. "The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22edc4

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


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