Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

In this study, you will predict whether three business support programmes in the UK - GrowthAccelerator, the Growth Impact Pilot, and the Innovation Vouchers Programmes - helped businesses to grow and succeed. We will ask you about turnover (the total amount of money taken by a business in a single year) and employment (the total number of jobs supplied in a single year).

Study ID sspp-2025-0024-v1
Authors Maria Brackin, Rob Fuller
Discipline Economics, Management
Field Experimental Economics, Other
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Brackin, Maria, and Rob Fuller. 2025. "Predicting the Effectiveness of Business Support." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 29. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/866cff



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Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0013-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4c8bbb

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 90.0%

Abstract

We study the impacts of self-promotional language on responses to informal requests for support. We conducted a field experiment where we emailed researchers a request to help a team advance an ongoing research project by completing a survey. Email recipients were assigned to receive one of four emails, and we randomized the information in the email request. In this survey, you will predict the response rates for each of the four emails.

Study ID sspp-2025-0014-v1
Authors Jenny Chang, Silvia Saccardo, Stephanie Permut, Gretchen Chapman
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Chang, Jenny, Saccardo, Silvia, Permut, Stephanie, and Gretchen Chapman. 2025. "Predicting the impacts of self-promotion." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/84d0dy



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Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0012-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4b6x28



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Abstract

This survey seeks your views on whether meta-analyses are likely to produce different conclusions when using alternative effect sizes.

Study ID sspp-2025-0023-v1
Authors April Wang, Tom Coupe, Sanghyun Hong, Shinichi Nakagawa, Bob Reed, Yefeng Yang
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics, Econometrics, Experimental Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Wang, April, Coupe, Tom, Hong, Sanghyun, Nakagawa, Shinichi, Reed, Bob, and Yefeng Yang. 2025. "DO DIFFERENT EFFECT SIZES IN META-ANALYSES LEAD TO DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS?." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6008cc



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