Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

In a recent literature review, Gladstone and Cimpiani (2021) indicate that practitioners and policymakers see role models as the “one-stop solution for increasing diversity in STEM” and other male-dominated fields. In this forecast, we are interested in learning how well people can predict the effect of a two lessons video-based role models intervention among high school students. It comprises evidence of two experiments gathering about 47,000 students in more than 1,100 schools.

Study ID sspp-2022-0031-v1
Authors Igor Asanov, Thomas Astebro, Guido Bünstorf, Bruno Crépon, Francisco Flores, David McKenzie, Mona Mensmann, Mathis Schulte
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date July 15, 2022


Citation
Asanov, Igor, Astebro, Thomas, Bünstorf, Guido, Crépon, Bruno, Flores, Francisco, McKenzie, David, Mensmann, Mona, and Mathis Schulte. 2022. "Effects of role models on promoting STEM and Entrepreneurship education." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/xaz4e0



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

This study was done in collaboration with a large NGO which gives cash transfers directly to very poor households. To be eligible for a transfer, households had to live in homes with thatched roofs. Eligible households were given three cash transfers over six months, totalling $1871 USD. We ask you to forecast the 6 year impacts on eligible and ineligible households.

Study ID sspp-2022-0006-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run general equilibrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2c6dbb

---

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

A Ugandan education firm developed a program to improve literacy by teaching in children's mother tongue. There are two versions of the program: full-cost and reduced-cost. We ask you to forecast the long-run impacts on test scores and school attendance.

Study ID sspp-2022-0007-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run impacts of mother tongue instruction in Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/bb04b2

---

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

Boarding schools are a form of education where students live and learn at the school. Although traditionally boarding schools were mostly for upper-class English and American families, there has been recent interest in using boarding schools to improve the progress of disadvantaged students. This study took place in France, with a boarding school which serves relatively high ability students from poor families. In this survey we ask you to make forecasts of the long-run 9 year impacts of being offered a place at a boarding school

Study ID sspp-2022-0005-v1
Authors David Bernard
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date June 30, 2022


Citation
David Bernard. 2022. "Long-run impacts of boarding school in France." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 3. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d8cf4e

---

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

Middle school students in China took an entrance exam for high school admissions which fully determines the high schools’ preferences over the students. However, students need to apply to one of several high schools before knowing their exact exam scores. Thus they need to make their high-stakes school choices based on their exam score estimations. We conducted a survey with students to study their estimations. We ask you to make predictions about the differences between their estimated and actual scores, the differences between students’ recalled scores in a previous mock exam and their actual scores for that exam, and the relationship between the estimation and the recall.

Study ID sspp-2022-0032-v1
Authors Yiming Liu, Stephanie W. Wang
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date June 25, 2022


Citation
Liu, Yiming, and Stephanie W. Wang. 2022. "Predict beliefs about exam scores." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/d0x20x