Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We are conducting an experiment examining a nudge/design used by some online retailers to influence people's choices. We will measure consumer choice and also consumers' perceptions of the design (e.g., whether it seemed unethical, fair, etc). In this survey, please estimate how the design impacted each outcome variable, including choice and ratings of fairness, ethicality, etc. We may also ask some questions about whether you have seen this type of digital design used by organizations you're affiliated with and whether you're aware of past research on this type of design.

Study ID sspp-2025-0010-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Ashley Otto, Yuna Choe
Discipline Economics, Psychology, Other
Field Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 18, 2025


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Otto, Ashley, and Yuna Choe. 2025. "Digital Nudges & Perceived Fairness." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/000f48

Abstract

To explore the relationship between income stability and health, we will run a randomized experiment in northern Ghana. To accomplish this goal, the study will provide temporary employment for low-income individuals during the lean season, when work is scarce. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of the four arms which vary whether the number of work hours vary over time and whether they vary predictably or unpredictably. The study will enroll 2,267 participants for 12 weeks (i.e. 6 periods) with an additional follow-up survey occurring 4 weeks after the conclusion of the active study phase. We hypothesize that all treated participants will experience gains in mental health relative to the control (given the increased income), but that the gains will be largest among the arm receiving stable and predictable work and lowest in the arm receiving unstable and unpredictable work.

Study ID sspp-2024-0047-v1
Authors Schofield, Heather, Somville, Vincent, Carvalho, Leandro, de Walque Damien, Wei, Jingyao, Grandstaff, Nicholas
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 15, 2025


Citation
Schofield, , Heather, , Somville, , Vincent, , Carvalho, , Leandro, , Damien, de Walque, Wei, , Jingyao, , Grandstaff, , and Nicholas. 2024. "Unstable Income, Rising Stress? The Effects of Income Instability on Psychological and Physiological Health." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dab068



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. 1. The Chicago Resilient Communities Pilot will provide 5,000 participants with $500 per month for one year. A control group of approximately 7,000 individuals will serve as the comparison group. 2. The Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot will provide 3,250 participants with $500 per month for two years. A control group of approximately 8,940 individuals will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Study ID sspp-2024-0031-v1
Authors Nour Abdul-Razzak, Alex Bartik, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 1, 2025


Citation
Abdul-Razzak, Nour, Bartik, Alex, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2024. "Unconditional cash transfers in Chicago and Cook County." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22zc64

---

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

This survey collects forecasts from experts, development practitioners and academics regarding the impacts of three different teacher training programs in El Salvador. This survey consists of three sections: First, we will explain the program and the context of the study. Second, you can provide your predictions regarding the impact of the program. Third, we are interested in your background and would like to collect basic demographic and professional information.

Study ID sspp-2025-0002-v1
Authors Konstantin Büchel, Carla Coccia, Martina Jakob, Ben Jann
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 1, 2025


Citation
Büchel, Konstantin, Coccia, Carla, Jakob, Martina, and Ben Jann. 2025. "Improving the Quality of Education in Developing Countries: An Experimental Evaluation of Teacher Training Programs in El Salvador." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/efyx68



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

The study examines cognitive performance of individuals in the long-run and intergenerationally. We utilize the Kenya Life Panel Survey (KLPS), a longitudinal study tracking over 7,000 individuals who attended primary school in Kenya. Individuals were sampled in 1998 for participation in schooling interventions, and have been tracked continuously since then in five survey rounds spanning 25 years. The first goal of the analysis is to estimate the correlation in individual cognitive performance over long periods of time. We utilize cognitive data collected when individuals were children and also when they were in middle-age. Specifically, in 2000 when the respondents were in early adolescence (age range 12 to 15), detailed data was collected in several different cognitive tests. The same cognitive tests were then collected in 2023 when respondents ranged in age from 35 to 38. We estimate the correlation between cognitive tests scores on each of the tests 23 years apart. The second goal is to estimate intergenerational correlations of cognitive scores. The most recent KLPS survey round (Round 5) also collected (in 2024-25) the same cognitive assessments with a randomly selected sample of children of the KLPS respondents, who range in age from 10 to 13, overlapping with the age at which their parents were tested decades earlier. This allows us to estimate the correlation between cognitive scores of parents and their children, where we are interested both in the correlation of parents’ current score (in 2023) with their children’s scores, as well as the correlation of the parents’ 2000 scores with their children.

Study ID sspp-2025-0001-v1
Authors Edward Miguel, Michael Walker, Uyanga Byambaa (+ others)
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) March 31, 2025


Citation
Miguel, Edward, Walker, Michael, and Uyanga Byambaa (+ others). 2025. "Linking childhood to midlife and intergenerational cognitive development: Evidence from the Kenya Life Panel Survey." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4ee46z



Download Qualtrics File