Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. This study provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0014-v1
Authors David Bernard, Dennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Johannes Haushofer, Michael Walker
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Egger, Dennis, Miguel, Edward, Haushofer, Johannes, and Michael Walker. 2023. "Long-run general equilbrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzy4az

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

Globally, there is a standard course of 5 vaccines over the first year of life. In Sierra Leone, 99% of children get the first vaccine, but only 69% of children complete all 5 vaccinations by the age of one. This study asks if we can increase timely and complete vaccination by allowing parents to show to others that they have vaccinated their child. Researchers introduced a signal in the form of coloured bracelets that children receive upon vaccination in Sierra Leone. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the signalling intervention. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0011-v1
Authors David Bernard, Anne Karing
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, and Anne Karing. 2023. "Long-run impacts of social signalling for vaccinations in Sierra Leone." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 9. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ceyfdf

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

“Big-push” interventions are often seen as key for reducing persistent poverty, especially in Afghanistan which is one of the most fragile and conflict-affected countries in the world. By combining a package of different assets and services, the Targeting the Ultra Poor program (TUP) aims to lift households out of poverty. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0006-v1
Authors David Bernard, Yulia Belyajova, Aidan Coville, Guadalupe Bedoya, Thomas Escande
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Belyajova, Yulia, Coville, Aidan, Bedoya, Guadalupe, and Thomas Escande. 2023. "Long-run impacts of a Graduation program in Afghanistan." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ex6b00

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

Financial education is an important part of the curriculum in secondary education in many countries. However, the short and long-run effects of this education are subject to debate. Researchers in Spain launched a program “Finance for All” to improve financial knowledge among high schoolers. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0002-v1
Authors David Bernard, Olympia Bover, Laura Hospido, Margarita Machelett, Ernesto Villanueva
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Bover, Olympia, Hospido, Laura, Machelett, Margarita, and Ernesto Villanueva. 2023. "Long-run impacts of financial education in Spain." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/2xfa0f

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Abstract

In Uganda children in lower primary are often taught in English instead of their local language. An Ugandan education firm developed a program to improve literacy by teaching in the local language. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Study ID sspp-2023-0003-v1
Authors David Bernard, Julie Buhl-Wiggers, Jason Kerwin, Ricardo Montero de la Piedra, Jeffrey Smith, Rebecca L. Thornton
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023


Citation
Bernard, David, Buhl-Wiggers, Julie, Kerwin, Jason, Piedra, Ricardo Montero de la, Smith, Jeffrey, and Rebecca L. Thornton. 2023. "Long-run impacts of mother tongue instruction in Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b0zfbx

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

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