The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture (Public)
ProjectThe Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture Study IDsspp-2023-0024-v1 Study Title
The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture AuthorsFiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane, Harshil Sahai Completion Time15 Minutes Close DateAug. 31, 2023 DisciplineEconomics FieldDevelopment Economics CountryIndia Abstract Approximately 65% of the world’s working poor depend on agriculture for survival (World Bank, 2016). Yet, the acceleration of climate change makes it increasingly difficult for households to derive stable returns from their agricultural investments. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather shocks, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in most parts of the world. This research uses a randomized control trial to test a new method of adaptation for farmers: long-range weather forecasts. We leverage recent advances in atmospheric science to bring high-quality forecasts about when the monsoon will arrive to farmers. We estimate the impact of these forecasts on farmers’ beliefs about when the monsoon will arrive, consumption, agricultural investments and production, assets and household finance, and migration decisions (among others).
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