About the Forecasting Panel

Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? We are currently accepting applications to join our Social Science Prediction Platform Forecasting Panel 2.0! (Continuing from the first panel, started in 2023.) As a panelist, you'll need to complete a minimum of 80% of the surveys on the platform each six-month semester (roughly 15-25 projects).

The incentive program operates on a biannual schedule. After the first six months of participation, members of the Forecasting Panel will receive a payment of $200. After completing the second six month stage of the experiment, panelists will be paid an additional $200, and panelists in the top accuracy tier will receive a $300 bonus! (On top of the $200.)

Program eligibility

Graduate students, faculty, and researchers at other institutions are eligible for these incentives. To participate, you must complete the basic background questions associated with your profile and provide an email address for payment. Each individual can have a maximum of one account on the platform. Users may be disqualified if we detect they are not substantively engaging with the surveys they complete. If you have any questions relating to your eligibility, please contact our support staff at team@socialscienceprediction.org.

Your email address and researcher status will be confirmed prior to any payments being made. Individuals receiving large amounts may be asked to provide further details before payment is released.

Details on incentives

Participants in the Forecasting Panel will be paid a total of $200 for the first six months, conditional on completing forecasts for 80% of the projects posted during that six-month semester. For example, if 20 projects are posted in a six month period, panelists would be expected to make forecasts for at least 16 of them. If the number of projects increases greatly, the project team will announce a minimum number of projects to be completed for the semester instead of using the 80% benchmark.

Users will be able to see the number of completed surveys on their survey dashboard, and will be sent email notifications if they are going to miss the targeted number of surveys for the month. After completing the first six months of the program, participants will be invited to participate in a second six month phase which pays an additional $200 upon completion and which has the same per-month requirements. In addition, we will add an extra $300 bonus for forecasters who completed the 12 months and are in the top half of forecaster accuracy.

Payment options: We currently administer payments through electronic bank transfers (via the Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI)). If you have any questions relating to our incentive programs, please contact support staff at team@socialscienceprediction.org. We appreciate your participation on our platform!

Relationship to survey-specific incentives: Some surveys offer additional incentives, for example based on the accuracy of forecasters' predictions. Participation in the Forecasting Panel does not affect these incentives.