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Leaderboard statistics only include registered users.

Users' names are anonymized by default. To make your name public on these leaderboards, uncheck 'Hide your name' on your profile here.

Mean Absolute Error

The average absolute difference between predicted and true values, normalized by baseline standard deviation. Lower scores indicate better prediction accuracy. Each prediction is first standardized by dividing by the baseline standard deviation before calculating the error.

To be ranked in this metric, users must have made at least 10 numeric forecasts with reported results across at least 5 studies.

Relative Error

The average difference between a user's predictions and the mean prediction for each question. A negative value means the user's predictions were better than average. Each prediction is first standardized by the baseline standard deviation.

🏆 Top Forecasters BETA 🏆

by Mean Absolute Error as of July 03, 2025, 05:06 a.m. UTC
Rank Name Mean Absolute Error Relative Error Predictions (with results) Studies (with results)
1 Anonymous 0.113 -0.065 35 6
2 Anonymous 0.140 -0.037 34 7
3 Jason Jones 0.144 -0.137 23 5
4 Austin Smith 0.157 -0.160 50 6
5 Davide Domenico Pace 0.188 -0.131 25 5
6 Anonymous 0.191 -0.096 73 5
7 John Bash 0.197 -0.127 99 7
8 Anonymous 0.198 -0.075 71 9
9 Anonymous 0.202 -0.160 119 15
10 Anonymous 0.203 -0.119 110 12