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Leaderboard statistics only include registered users.

Users' names are anonymized by default. To make your name public on these leaderboards, uncheck 'Hide your name' on your profile here.

Mean Absolute Error

The average absolute difference between predicted and true values, normalized by baseline standard deviation. Lower scores indicate better prediction accuracy. Each prediction is first standardized by dividing by the baseline standard deviation before calculating the error.

To be ranked in this metric, users must have made at least 10 numeric forecasts with reported results across at least 5 studies.

Relative Error

The average difference between a user's predictions and the mean prediction for each question. A negative value means the user's predictions were better than average. Each prediction is first standardized by the baseline standard deviation.

🏆 Top Forecasters BETA 🏆

by Mean Absolute Error as of April 16, 2025, 12:34 a.m. UTC
Rank Name Mean Absolute Error Relative Error Predictions (with results) Studies (with results)
1 Anonymous 0.180 -0.075 28 6
2 Anonymous 0.187 -0.196 35 5
3 Jason Jones 0.229 -0.378 23 5
4 Anonymous 0.321 -0.813 48 5
5 Anonymous 0.336 -0.197 32 6
6 Anonymous 0.349 -0.327 50 6
7 Anonymous 0.355 -1.809 28 6
8 Anonymous 0.358 -0.496 48 5
9 Anonymous 0.358 -0.291 48 5
10 Anonymous 0.366 -0.860 73 7