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Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate

Study ID sspp-2021-0028-v1

General Details

Project Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate
Study ID sspp-2021-0028-v1
Study Title Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate
Authors Benjamin Enke, Thomas Graeber, Ryan Oprea
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Nov. 17, 2021
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Country Online (limited countries)
Abstract
Research on decision-making has identified a number of robust violations of fundamental principles of rationality. This project studies two questions: 1. In which tasks do people tend to be aware of their errors, and in which tasks do they tend to be confident in their answers even when they are wrong? 2. Which types of errors get either filtered out or exacerbated in the aggregate once people interact with each other through institutions such as markets or organizations?


Forecast Distributions


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Citation
Enke, Benjamin, Graeber, Thomas, and Ryan Oprea. 2021. "Confidence, Institutions and Bias in the Aggregate." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 6. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/b04a0x

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