Long-run general equilbrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya

Study ID sspp-2023-0014-v1

General Details

Project GE Kenya final
Study ID sspp-2023-0014-v1
Study Title Long-run general equilbrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya
Authors David Bernard, Dennis Egger, Edward Miguel, Johannes Haushofer, Michael Walker
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date May 1, 2023
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Country Kenya
Abstract
How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. This study provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. We ask you to predict the short and long-run effects of the program. 10% of respondents to this survey will receive an accuracy reward of up to $100. There is also a $40 reward if you complete at least 4 of these long-run surveys.

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 10.0%

Forecast Distributions

When uploading forecasting surveys, authors are asked to select several key questions which are often the questions they think are the most important to the study.

View Key Question Response Distribution:

Disclaimer: All data are preliminary and may differ from the published results.

Citation
Bernard, David, Egger, Dennis, Miguel, Edward, Haushofer, Johannes, and Michael Walker. 2023. "Long-run general equilbrium effects of cash transfers in Kenya." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 24. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzy4az