The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states

Study ID sspp-2023-0050-v1

General Details

Project UCT-RCT
Study ID sspp-2023-0050-v1
Study Title The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states
Authors Alex Bartik, David Broockman, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date March 31, 2024
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Country United States
Abstract
The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. We evaluate a large U.S. guaranteed income program implemented by two nonprofits. 1,000 individuals in the treatment group will receive $1,000 per month for 3 years, while a control group of 2,000 individuals who receive $50 per month will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives

Forecast Distributions

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Citation
Bartik, Alex, Broockman, David, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2023. "The causal effects of sustained unconditional cash transfers: Experimental evidence from two U.S. states." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22edc4

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