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Contingent Belief Updating

Study ID sspp-2023-0007-v1

General Details

Project Contingent Belief Updating
Study ID sspp-2023-0007-v1
Study Title Contingent Belief Updating
Authors Chiara Aina, Andrea Amelio, Katharina Brütt
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date March 17, 2023
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Country United States, United Kingdom, Online (limited countries)
We study the effect of contingent thinking on belief updating. One possible explanation for biased beliefs is that agents distort the underlying data generating process when updating their beliefs given a new piece of information. Engaging in contingent thinking — that is, reasoning through all possible contingencies without knowing which is realized — might affect the agents’ understanding of the data generating process, resulting in differences in belief updating. Through a series of online experiments, we aim to uncover and break down the effect of contingent thinking on belief distortions into two components: (1) hypothetical thinking (updating on a piece of not-yet-observed information) and (2) contrast reasoning (comparing multiple contingencies during the updating task).

Aina, Chiara, Amelio, Andrea, and Katharina Brütt. 2023. "Contingent Belief Updating." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 16.