Banner: New Projects on the Social Science Prediction Platform

What are the common use cases for the SSPP? What have we learned about the accuracy of predictions so far? Learn more in a presentation by SSPP team members Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt, and Nicholas Otis given at the 10th BITSS Annual Meeting. Click the image below to watch and see the slides here.

Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt, and Nicholas Otis presented news on the SSPP at the recent BITSS Annual Meeting.

Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

Predicting Adoption of Nudges in U.S. Cities (10 min, close date: Mar 31). Stefano DellaVigna, Woojin Kim, and Elizabeth Linos invite predictions on the take-up of evidence from nudging experiments among local governments in the US.
($) Long-term effects of RCTs (10 min each, close date: June 1). David Rhys Bernard collects predictions of the long-term effects of several interventions, including boarding school admission in France, cash transfers in Kenya, cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia, and mother-tongue instruction in Uganda.
Who Recovers Unclaimed Funds? (15 min, close date: June 30). Eva Vivalt tests the effectiveness of providing information and assistance in recovering unclaimed property in the US.

Spread the word about the SSPP

Know someone interested in collecting or contributing predictions? Share this newsletter or the video below with them! Follow @SocSciPrediction on Twitter for updates.

Video presenting the motivation for, and the main features of the Social Science Prediction Platform.

Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.

Who uses the SSPP and what benefits have they experienced?

Since launching last July, the SSPP has welcomed over 1,800 users and 19 projects that have collected over 1,600 predictions. We’re excited to share what we’ve learned about who is using the platform, how researchers want to contribute, collect, or share predictions, and which features have been most helpful in our new post on the BITSS blog. You can also learn more about generalizability challenges in policy-oriented research and how the SSPP can better inform decision-making in this interview with PI Eva Vivalt on a recent episode of the “Hear This Idea” podcast.

The Forecasting Challenge closes June 7

We are offering $25 Amazon gift cards to the first 200 graduate students who complete 10 surveys. Submit your predictions now!

Presenting the SSPP in a nutshell

Watch and share our new video explaining the types of questions for which researchers can collect forecasts on the SSPP and the benefits of collecting predictions systematically, such as mitigating publication bias and hindsight bias, and improving study design. Click the image below to watch.

New project results are available

You can now access the results of several recently closed projects and see how they compare to your predictions and the average prediction. Log into your SSPP profile and click on the links below to access:

Expert forecasts on Cooperation of German Farmers in a Public Good Game by Jens Rommel, Julian Sagebiel, and Christoph Schulze.
Combatting Covid-19 in Mozambique by James Allen IV, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Tanya Rosenblat, Dean Yang, and Hang Yu (displayed below).

Graph showing the distribution of predictions for a project by Rommel et al (2021).

Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

Crowdsourcing Political Models of Covid-19 Mortality (10 min, close date: May 31). Miriam Golden, Alex Scacco, Kim Yi Dionne, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Macartan Humphreys, Sampada KC, Eva Vivalt, and Haoyu Zhai collect predictions on the predictive power of statistical models that predict future COVID-19 mortality across and within countries.
Hedonic Adaptation and Mere Exposure (5 min, close date: May 31). Kellen Mrkva invites predictions on the replicability of studies on hedonic adaptation and mere exposure, which investigate what happens when people are repeatedly exposed to the same image.
*The Long Run Effects of a Program Aimed At Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) in Liberia (10 min, close date: July 31). Christopher Blattman, Sebastian Chaskel, Julian Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan collect predictions for a ten-year follow-up of CBT and cash interventions on participants’ violent and criminal behavior.
Beliefs About Public Spending and Efficient Expenditures in Public Procurement Officers (15 min, close date: Dec. 31). Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler, Marcelo Olivares, and Raimundo Undurraga collect predictions about information interventions that promote efficient spending in public procurement.

Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.

In case you missed it, Nick Otis, Eva Vivalt, Arun Advani, and Stefano DellaVigna discussed lessons from the SSPP’s first six months and shared results from two projects that collected predictions on the platform at the recent BITSS Annual Meeting. Watch the panel discussion here and find slides here. Read on for results from the completed projects and links to new and open surveys.

Stefano Dellavigna, Eva Vivalt, Nick Otis, and Arun Advani discuss the SSPP at the BITSS Annual Meeting.

Results from two projects are now available

You can now access the results of two recently closed projects and see how they compare to your predictions and the average prediction. Click on the links below to access:

The Study of Race in Economics and Other Social Sciences by Arun Advani, Elliott Ash, David Cai, and Imran Rasul

How Do Policy-Makers Weigh Evidence? by Aidan Coville and Eva Vivalt

The Forecasting Challenge is still open

Congratulations to the graduate students who have completed the Forecasting Challenge so far! Learn more about how to complete the challenge and win your own gift card here.

Open surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

NEW: How Do Firms Decide whether to Adopt Profitable Business Practices? (10 min). Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins, Ulrike Malmendier, and Waldo Ojeda collect predictions on field experts about the effects of reminders and deadlines on businesses’ take-up of profitable business opportunities.
NEW: Improving HIV Medication Adherence in Mozambique (10 min). Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Jared Stolove, Dean Yang, and Hang Yu investigate several interventions to improve the adherence to antiretroviral therapy among newly diagnosed HIV patients in Mozambique.
*NEW: Cooperation of German Farmers in a Public Goods Game (10 min). Jens Rommel, Julian Sagebiel, and Christoph Schulze test four treatments aimed at inducing cooperation among farmers as part of an agri-environmental scheme led by the European Union.
NEW: Hedonic Adaptation and Mere Exposure (5 min). Kellen Mrkva invites predictions for replications of studies on hedonic adaptation and mere exposure—whether or not repeated exposure to the same image neutralizes or has positive effects on perceptions of the image.
Combatting COVID-19 in Mozambique (15 min). James Allen IV, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Tanya Rosenblat, Dean Yang, and Hang Yu test the effectiveness of over-the-phone interventions encouraging social distancing behavior in Mozambique following household surveys regarding COVID-19 knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors.
Gender and Attribution of Credit in Hiring Team Workers: Evidence from a Representative US Sample (15 min). Ingvild Almås, Serena Cocciolo, Jonathan de Quidt, Sebastian Fest, and Anna Sandberg examine gender differences in credit for group work and two policies that might address them in a large representative US sample.
*A Randomized Controlled Trial Varying Unconditional Cash Transfer Amounts in the US (10 min). Oliver Hauser, Jon Jachimowicz, Julian Jamison, and Ania Jaroszewicz measure the effects of unconditional cash transfers on financial, psychological, cognitive capacity, and physical health outcomes within a population of low-income individuals in the US.
Beliefs About Public Spending and Efficient Expenditures in Public Procurement Officers (15 min). Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler, Marcelo Olivares, and Raimundo Undurraga test the effectiveness of a series of information interventions on changing the institutional culture of efficiency within Chilean Public Services.

Submit a project

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please share this newsletter with them. Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.

Four new projects are now accepting predictions (more below)! If you’re a graduate student, weighing in on these projects can get you three surveys closer to completing the

Forecasting Challenge (read more about the Challenge and how to receive a $25 Amazon gift card here). Please make sure to complete your user profile to indicate your eligibility.

In response to your requests, we’ve also made it possible for project teams to host open and closed projects on permanent pages, so you can easily share and cite your survey instruments.

We want to hear from you!

Tell us about your experience using the SSPP, whether you’ve collected or contributed predictions, in this 5-minute survey.

Open Surveys

The following surveys are collecting responses. *Starred projects are offering financial incentives for respondents.

NEW: Binary Choices Involving Risk and/or Loss (5 min, closing today). Jonathan Chapman, Erik Snowberg, Stephanie Wang, and Colin Camerer assess risk and loss attitudes in the US population by asking survey respondents to choose between pairs of options.
NEW: Combatting COVID-19 in Mozambique (15 min). James Allen IV, Arlete Mahumane, James Riddell IV, Tanya Rosenblat, Dean Yang, and Hang Yu test the effectiveness of over-the-phone interventions encouraging social distancing behavior in Mozambique following household surveys regarding COVID-19 knowledge, beliefs, and behaviors.
NEW: Beliefs About Public Spending and Efficient Expenditures in Public Procurement Officers (15 min). Pablo Celhay, Paul Gertler, Marcelo Olivares, and Raimundo Undurraga test the effectiveness of a series of information interventions on changing the institutional culture of efficiency within Chilean Public Services.
*NEW: A Randomized Controlled Trial Varying Unconditional Cash Transfer Amounts in the US (10 min). Oliver Hauser, Jon Jachimowicz, Julian Jamison, and Ania Jaroszewicz measure the effects of unconditional cash transfers on financial, psychological, cognitive capacity, and physical health outcomes within a population of low-income individuals in the US.
*Accessibility and Generalizability: Are Social Media Effects Moderated by Age or Digital Literacy? (10 min). Kevin Munger, Ishita Gopal, Joshua Tucker, and Jonathan Nagler replicate two social media experiments originally conducted on a sample of Mechanical Turk users lacking older subjects. Their replications collect data from a sample with wider variation in age and include new measures of digital literacy.
Gender and Attribution of Credit in Hiring Team Workers: Evidence from a Representative US Sample (15 min). Ingvild Almås, Serena Cocciolo, Jonathan de Quidt, Sebastian Fest, and Anna Sandberg examine gender differences in credit for group work, and two policies that might address them in a large representative US sample.
The Economics Consequences of Depression (15 min). Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach, and Heather Schofield survey participants of two past RCTs conducted by psychiatrists, measuring mental health outcomes, economic outcomes, and behavioral outcomes.

Submit a project!

If you’re interested in collecting predictions, visit our Survey Guide or FAQs to get started. If you have questions or would like support, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org.

If you know someone who might be interested in collecting or contributing predictions, please feel free to share this newsletter with them.

Since launching the SSPP in July, we’ve welcomed over 2,000 researchers, faculty, and students like you to our platform to predict the results of social science experiments and invite predictions for new studies. Your projects and predictions have focused on diverse topics ranging from the persistence of mental health interventions in India to the perception of race-related research in economics. You can now weigh in on five open projects (details below). Additional highlights include:

216 faculty users, 437 students, and 196 researchers—you can update your profile information here if you haven’t filled out this information yet
6 open surveys and 2 completed surveys
1,337 total predictions and 167 average predictions per project

We hope your experience on the SSPP has been enlightening and useful. The platform is still young—we appreciate your questions and suggestions, which you can send to support@socialscienceprediction.org. As our community grows, we also hope you can help us spread the word.

Platform Updates

The Forecasting Challenge is now open! Graduate students who respond to 10 or more surveys will receive a $25 Amazon gift card. Please make sure to complete your user profile to indicate your eligibility. Read more here.
Project leads: You can now upload results from your completed projects so that others can see how things panned out after surveys have closed. Those responded to your surveys can also see how their predictions compare to these results.
For those who have elected to receive regular email digests, we expect to send our first messages next month. These will include open surveys that fit the interests you indicated in your profile. If you haven’t signed up for these yet, make sure to do so here.
We've created a guide containing a number of tools to help new users navigate the platform.Programming a forecasting survey? We've developed a Qualtrics template, and highlight some simple ways to improve your surveys.

Open Surveys

The following surveys are currently collecting responses. Estimates for how long surveys will take have been provided by the researchers.

The Syrian Refugee Life Study (15 minutes). Emma Smith, Edward Miguel, Sam Leone, and Sandra Rozo evaluate the effectiveness of programs that support Syrian refugees and their host communities in Jordan.
Accessibility and Generalizability: Are Social Media Effects Moderated by Age or Digital Literacy? (10 minutes). Kevin Munger, Ishita Gopal, Joshua Tucker, and Jonathan Nagler replicate two social media experiments originally conducted on a sample of Mechanical Turk users lacking older subjects. Their replications collect data from a sample with wider variation in age and include new measures of digital literacy.
Institutional Signals and Social Change (5 minutes). Elizabeth Levy Paluck, Joel Martinez, Chelsey S. Clark investigate personal attitudes and perceptions of social norms regarding two social issues ruled on by the Supreme Court: abortion access and the DACA immigration program.
Gender and Attribution of Credit in Hiring Team Workers: Evidence from a Representative US Sample (15 minutes). Ingvild Almås, Serena Cocciolo, Jonathan de Quidt, Sebastian Fest, and Anna Sandberg examine gender differences in credit for group work, and two policies that might address them in a large representative US sample.
The Economics Consequences of Depression (15 minutes). Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach, and Heather Schofield survey participants of two past RCTs conducted by psychiatrists, measuring mental health outcomes, economic outcomes, and behavioral outcomes.

Submit a project!

We’re accepting new projects! Visit our Survey Guide or FAQs for more information. If you’re not sure how to start, contact Nick Otis at support@socialscienceprediction.org with questions.

Newsletters

Please click on any of the newsletters below to read in greater detail

We want to hear from you!

Open Surveys

Submit a project!

Mar 2022 - News from the SSPP

May 2021 - Who uses the SSP and what benefits have they experienced?

Jan 2021 - Reflecting on the early growth of the SSPP

Nov 2020 - New Projects on the SSPP!

We want to hear from you!

Open Surveys

Submit a project!

Oct 2020 - Welcome to the SSPP!