Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But what do we know about the accuracy of these forecasts? We use a unique data set from the Social Science Prediction Platform for all 100 projects posted in the 2020-24 period, including results for 66 projects. This unique data set (with over 53,000 forecasts, 34,000 of which have results) contains detailed information on the projects and the forecasters, including tracking forecasters across projects. In this survey, we ask you to make predictions about various results we obtain from this dataset, including results on the mean forecasts and forecaster accuracy.

Study ID sspp-2025-0032-v1
Authors Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics, Other
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 8, 2025


Citation
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Eva Vivalt. 2025. "Forecasting the SSPP Research Results." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 8. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/zz8ee8



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Abstract

This study explores how subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and providing information on sustainable crop residue management affect farmers’ decisions in Punjab, India. Your responses will help us understand and predict the impact of these interventions on reducing crop residue burning.

Study ID sspp-2025-0029-v1
Authors Piyush Gandhi
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Environment, Resource And Energy Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 15, 2025


Citation
Piyush Gandhi. 2025. "Predicting the Impacts of Input Subsidy and Training on Environmental Outcomes in Agriculture." Social Science Prediction Platform. June 6. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0fx0ea

Abstract

Economists and other social scientists commonly study "sensitive" attitudes and behaviors whose prevalence is hard to observe directly. In this survey, you will be asked to predict the prevalence of one such sensitive behavior: tax non-compliance among businesses in Kampala, Uganda. Your predictions in this short survey will be a key input for a new survey measurement paradigm on sensitive issues.

Study ID sspp-2025-0019-v1
Authors Yannick Markhof, Stephan Dietrich, Rose Camille Vincent
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics, Development Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Markhof, Yannick, Dietrich, Stephan, and Rose Camille Vincent. 2025. "Predicting tax non-compliance in Kampala, Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cy64d8

Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0013-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4c8bbb

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 90.0%

Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0012-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4b6x28



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