Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

Economists and other social scientists commonly study "sensitive" attitudes and behaviors whose prevalence is hard to observe directly. In this survey, you will be asked to predict the prevalence of one such sensitive behavior: tax non-compliance among businesses in Kampala, Uganda. Your predictions in this short survey will be a key input for a new survey measurement paradigm on sensitive issues.

Study ID sspp-2025-0019-v1
Authors Yannick Markhof, Stephan Dietrich, Rose Camille Vincent
Discipline Economics
Field Applied Econometrics, Development Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Markhof, Yannick, Dietrich, Stephan, and Rose Camille Vincent. 2025. "Predicting tax non-compliance in Kampala, Uganda." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/cy64d8

Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0013-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4c8bbb

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 90.0%

Abstract

Differences in factual beliefs between members of opposing political parties are sometimes attributed to politically motivated reasoning. Using two different estimation tasks we examine the phenomenon. We focus on belief movement and simple signals.

Study ID sspp-2025-0012-v1
Authors Robin Musolff, Guy Yanay
Discipline Economics
Field Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Musolff, Robin, and Guy Yanay. 2025. "Politically Motivated Reasoning." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 5. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4b6x28



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Abstract

In this study, you will predict whether three business support programmes in the UK - GrowthAccelerator, the Growth Impact Pilot, and the Innovation Vouchers Programmes - helped businesses to grow and succeed. We will ask you about turnover (the total amount of money taken by a business in a single year) and employment (the total number of jobs supplied in a single year).

Study ID sspp-2025-0024-v1
Authors Maria Brackin, Rob Fuller
Discipline Economics, Management
Field Experimental Economics, Other
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Brackin, Maria, and Rob Fuller. 2025. "Predicting the Effectiveness of Business Support." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 29. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/866cff



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Abstract

We study the impacts of self-promotional language on responses to informal requests for support. We conducted a field experiment where we emailed researchers a request to help a team advance an ongoing research project by completing a survey. Email recipients were assigned to receive one of four emails, and we randomized the information in the email request. In this survey, you will predict the response rates for each of the four emails.

Study ID sspp-2025-0014-v1
Authors Jenny Chang, Silvia Saccardo, Stephanie Permut, Gretchen Chapman
Discipline Economics, Psychology
Field Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 30, 2025


Citation
Chang, Jenny, Saccardo, Silvia, Permut, Stephanie, and Gretchen Chapman. 2025. "Predicting the impacts of self-promotion." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 12. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/84d0dy



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