Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

This survey is about small-stakes decisions under risk. The underlying experiment tests a model of cognitive imprecision with two main objectives. First, it examines whether the behavior typically observed in small-stakes risky choices can be explained solely by imprecise perception of numerosities, or whether genuine risk aversion continues to play a role. Second, it investigates how cognitive load influences such decisions.

Study ID sspp-2025-0053-v1
Authors Antonio Filippin, Domenico Massaro
Discipline Economics
Field Experimental Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Feb. 23, 2026


Citation
Filippin, Antonio, and Domenico Massaro. 2025. "The Blurred Side of Risk: Experimental Evidence." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 23. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/40cyda

Abstract

We study the impact of age-verification laws on time spent on adult websites. Using individual-level data for internet activity, we can measure how these new laws change the way people spend time online.

Study ID sspp-2026-0001-v1
Authors Matt Brown, Emily Davis, Devin Pope
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Feb. 19, 2026


Citation
Brown, Matt, Davis, Emily, and Devin Pope. 2026. "Age-verification laws and adult websites." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 22. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dd0de2



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

In partnership with GiveWell, we are collecting forecasts for a hypothetical public health program: specifically, a randomized controlled trial testing a specific method of providing chlorinated water to households in a region of Nigeria. You can think of your task as predicting what a hypothetical impact evaluation would find: what would be the estimated causal impact of the chlorination program on under-5 child mortality?

Study ID sspp-2025-0054-v1
Authors Rhiannon Britt, Jessie Barker, Zack Devlin-Foltz, Josh Rosenberg, Connacher Murphy, and Ezra Karger
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Feb. 10, 2026


Citation
Britt, Rhiannon, Barker, Jessie, Devlin-Foltz, Zack, Rosenberg, Josh, Murphy, Connacher, and and Ezra Karger. 2025. "Water Quality Intervention Forecasting." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/czbbyx

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

We study firm beliefs about worker valuations of non-wage amenities.

Study ID sspp-2025-0051-v1
Authors Simon Cordes, Max Müller
Discipline Economics
Field Labor Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Jan. 15, 2026


Citation
Cordes, Simon, and Max Müller. 2025. "Firm Beliefs about Worker Preferences." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 20. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/4eyxc0

Abstract

We are conducting a study to understand the estimated impacts of training on forecasting accuracy. We are interested in your predictions of how effective different training modules will be in improving forecasting accuracy.

Study ID sspp-2025-0052-v1
Authors Jessie Barker, Ezra Karger, Rebecca Vessenes, Carter Allen, Mark Himmelstein, Pavel Atanasov, David Budescu
Discipline Psychology
Field Behavioral Science
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Dec. 31, 2025


Citation
Barker, Jessie, Karger, Ezra, Vessenes, Rebecca, Allen, Carter, Himmelstein, Mark, Atanasov, Pavel, and David Budescu. 2025. "Forecasting Training Survey." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 17. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dzzdfd

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Discrete: Fixed payment if forecast is within bounds
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%