Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

We are conducting an experiment examining a nudge/design used by some online retailers to influence people's choices. We will measure consumer choice and also consumers' perceptions of the design (e.g., whether it seemed unethical, fair, etc). In this survey, please estimate how the design impacted each outcome variable, including choice and ratings of fairness, ethicality, etc. We may also ask some questions about whether you have seen this type of digital design used by organizations you're affiliated with and whether you're aware of past research on this type of design.

Study ID sspp-2025-0010-v1
Authors Kellen Mrkva, Ashley Otto, Yuna Choe
Discipline Economics, Psychology, Other
Field Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 18, 2025


Citation
Mrkva, Kellen, Otto, Ashley, and Yuna Choe. 2025. "Digital Nudges & Perceived Fairness." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/000f48

Abstract

To explore the relationship between income stability and health, we will run a randomized experiment in northern Ghana. To accomplish this goal, the study will provide temporary employment for low-income individuals during the lean season, when work is scarce. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of the four arms which vary whether the number of work hours vary over time and whether they vary predictably or unpredictably. The study will enroll 2,267 participants for 12 weeks (i.e. 6 periods) with an additional follow-up survey occurring 4 weeks after the conclusion of the active study phase. We hypothesize that all treated participants will experience gains in mental health relative to the control (given the increased income), but that the gains will be largest among the arm receiving stable and predictable work and lowest in the arm receiving unstable and unpredictable work.

Study ID sspp-2024-0047-v1
Authors Schofield, Heather, Somville, Vincent, Carvalho, Leandro, de Walque Damien, Wei, Jingyao, Grandstaff, Nicholas
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 15, 2025


Citation
Schofield, , Heather, , Somville, , Vincent, , Carvalho, , Leandro, , Damien, de Walque, Wei, , Jingyao, , Grandstaff, , and Nicholas. 2024. "Unstable Income, Rising Stress? The Effects of Income Instability on Psychological and Physiological Health." Social Science Prediction Platform. November 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/dab068



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

This survey collects forecasts from experts, development practitioners and academics regarding the impacts of three different teacher training programs in El Salvador. This survey consists of three sections: First, we will explain the program and the context of the study. Second, you can provide your predictions regarding the impact of the program. Third, we are interested in your background and would like to collect basic demographic and professional information.

Study ID sspp-2025-0002-v1
Authors Konstantin Büchel, Carla Coccia, Martina Jakob, Ben Jann
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 1, 2025


Citation
Büchel, Konstantin, Coccia, Carla, Jakob, Martina, and Ben Jann. 2025. "Improving the Quality of Education in Developing Countries: An Experimental Evaluation of Teacher Training Programs in El Salvador." Social Science Prediction Platform. January 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/efyx68



Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

The regular provision of unconditional cash transfers to individuals is a tactic to fight poverty that has attracted significant interest from researchers and policymakers. Despite this interest, many fundamental questions about the effects of receiving sustained unconditional cash transfers remain. 1. The Chicago Resilient Communities Pilot will provide 5,000 participants with $500 per month for one year. A control group of approximately 7,000 individuals will serve as the comparison group. 2. The Cook County Promise Guaranteed Income Pilot will provide 3,250 participants with $500 per month for two years. A control group of approximately 8,940 individuals will serve as the comparison group. The study offers an opportunity to inform both the debate over unconditional cash assistance and other questions about the effects of income that typically elude causal identification.

Study ID sspp-2024-0031-v1
Authors Nour Abdul-Razzak, Alex Bartik, Sarah Miller, Elizabeth Rhodes, Eva Vivalt
Discipline Economics
Field Economics Of Education, Health Economics, Labor Economics, Political Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 1, 2025


Citation
Abdul-Razzak, Nour, Bartik, Alex, Miller, Sarah, Rhodes, Elizabeth, and Eva Vivalt. 2024. "Unconditional cash transfers in Chicago and Cook County." Social Science Prediction Platform. September 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/22zc64

---

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method Continuous: Based on quadratic forecast accuracy (quadratic scoring rule)
Recipient Pool Everyone receives the incentives


Download Qualtrics File

Abstract

Concerns about the negative impacts of smartphones and social media have risen alongside their surging use in developing countries. One potential solution is educational interventions to encourage users to optimize their interactions with digital technologies. We co-created a multi-week, evidence-based digital empowerment curriculum designed to expand students’ ability to exert deliberate control over their use of social media and smartphones. We implement this curriculum with college students in India as a classroom-based course and as a text message-based course. Using a randomized controlled trial, we evaluate both versions of the curriculum and estimate the effects of exposure to the curriculum on social media consumption, mental health, misinformation discernment, sleep and concentration, and academic outcomes.

Study ID sspp-2024-0046-v1
Authors Mridul Joshi, Jalnidh Kaur, Lena Song
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Experimental Economics, Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) March 31, 2025


Citation
Joshi, Mridul, Kaur, Jalnidh, and Lena Song. 2024. "Evaluating a Digital Empowerment Curriculum for College Students in India." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 31. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/fyxxxe



Download Qualtrics File