Abstract
In partnership with GiveWell, we are collecting forecasts for a hypothetical public health program: specifically, a randomized controlled trial testing a specific method of providing chlorinated water to households in a region of Nigeria. You can think of your task as predicting what a hypothetical impact evaluation would find: what would be the estimated causal impact of the chlorination program on under-5 child mortality?
Study ID sspp-2025-0054-v1
Authors
Rhiannon Britt, Jessie Barker, Zack Devlin-Foltz, Josh Rosenberg, Connacher Murphy, and Ezra Karger
Discipline
Economics
Field
Development Economics
Completion Time
20 Minutes
Close Date (UTC)
Feb. 10, 2026
Citation
Britt, Rhiannon, Barker, Jessie, Devlin-Foltz, Zack, Rosenberg, Josh, Murphy, Connacher, and and Ezra Karger. 2025. "Water Quality Intervention Forecasting." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 30.
https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/czbbyx
Incentive Details
Incentive Type
Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool
Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage
5.0%