Public Prediction Bulletin

Abstract

In this study, you will submit a total of 21 forecasts related to how individuals make choices about future work allocations, what they believe about their future work allocations, as well as other related questions of interest. Bonus payments (for charity): We will select one of these forecasts at random and compare it to the empirical data we collect. The five forecasters closest to our requested estimate will have a prize of £100 donated to a charity of their choice. We will break ties randomly. This opportunity is completely voluntary, and if you wish to have your predictions entered into this competition, you will have an opportunity to provide your email at the end of this survey.

Study ID sspp-2025-0011-v1
Authors Alexander Coutts, Séverine Toussaert
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) May 15, 2025


Citation
Coutts, Alexander, and Séverine Toussaert. 2025. "Beliefs about choice reversals." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 10. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/aybcba

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Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%

Abstract

This survey is to seek your perspectives on potential responses that we may receive as part of a multi-country survey on public perceptions on energy subsidy reforms. Given your specific expertise and familiarity with this issue, we would like to ask you about how you expect survey respondents would answer key questions.

Study ID sspp-2025-0016-v1
Authors Christopher Hoy, Yeon Soo Kim, Moritz Meyer, Gustavo Javier Canavire Bacarreza, Saad Imtiaz, Ana Maria Rojas Mendez, Lydia Kim, William Hutchins Seitz, Imane Helmy, Ikuko Uochi, Sering Touray, Bambang Suharnoko Sjahrir, Trang Van Nguyen, Utz Pape, Alan Fuchs, Defne Gencer, Min A Lee, Akiko Sagesaka, Ivette Contreras, Aibek Ashirov, Aphichoke Kotikula, Juni Singh
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Public Economics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) May 15, 2025


Citation
Hoy, Christopher, Kim, Yeon Soo, Meyer, Moritz, Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier Canavire, Imtiaz, Saad, Mendez, Ana Maria Rojas, Kim, Lydia, Seitz, William Hutchins, Helmy, Imane, Uochi, Ikuko, Touray, Sering, Sjahrir, Bambang Suharnoko, Nguyen, Trang Van, Pape, Utz, Fuchs, Alan, Gencer, Defne, Lee, Min A, Sagesaka, Akiko, Contreras, Ivette, Ashirov, Aibek, Kotikula, Aphichoke, and Juni Singh. 2025. "Designing Publicly Acceptable Energy Price Reforms." Social Science Prediction Platform. March 19. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/e8e2cy



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Abstract

This survey collects forecasts from experts, development practitioners and academics regarding the impacts of three different teacher training programs in El Salvador.

Study ID sspp-2025-0008-v1
Authors Konstantin Büchel, Carla Coccia, Martina Jakob, Ben Jann
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Economics Of Education, Experimental Economics
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 30, 2025


Citation
Büchel, Konstantin, Coccia, Carla, Jakob, Martina, and Ben Jann. 2025. "Improving the Quality of Education in Developing Countries: An Experimental Evaluation of Teacher Training Programs in El Salvador." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 18. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/0ef0d4



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Abstract

We study the impact of a voter information campaign in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. Partnering with telecom companies, we informed voters about the criminal charges of all major party candidates in their constituency. The study took place in two sets of Uttar Pradesh's Legislative Assembly Elections. In both elections, approximately 30% of major party candidates had a criminal charge, and 15% had charges for violent crime such as murder, rape and kidnapping.

Study ID sspp-2025-0007-v1
Authors Siddharth George, Yusuf Neggers
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Political Economics, Political Behavior, Political Psychology
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 30, 2025


Citation
George, Siddharth, and Yusuf Neggers. 2025. "Impact of a Voter Information Campaign." Social Science Prediction Platform. February 13. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ezaxf8



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Abstract

This study tested the relative effectiveness of authentic or “deep” efforts to turn out the vote compared to standard get-out-the-vote (GOTV) approaches. Treatment was administered by organizations seeking to increase voter turnout in the 2024 general election through non-partisan efforts.

Study ID sspp-2025-0020-v1
Authors Daniel Markovits, Donald Green
Discipline Political Science
Field American Politics
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) April 30, 2025


Citation
Markovits, Daniel, and Donald Green. 2025. "Predicting Canvassing Effectiveness." Social Science Prediction Platform. April 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/6ffcex



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