Abstract
The protracted nature of recent displacement crises has resulted in increased interest from policymakers, donors, and aid organizations in durable solutions for the challenges faced by the forcibly displaced and their hosts. A pressing question is whether post-conflict recovery aid programs can contribute to sustained economic and social development. In the project we will describe to you, we are conducting a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of an ongoing, at-scale, livelihoods support program in Iraq that gives a $2,000 cash grant to economically vulnerable microentrepreneurs to start or expand a small business. The goal of the study is to recover causal effects of the focal intervention on both (a) beneficiaries and (b) non-beneficiaries who are socially and professionally proximate to beneficiaries. This survey will ask you to make predictions about the effects of such a program on both economic and social outcomes across these study samples.
Study ID sspp-2025-0028-v1
Authors
Andrea Caflisch, Daniel Masterson, Stephen D. O'Connell, Julia Smith-Omomo
Discipline
Economics
Field
Development Economics, Labor Economics
Completion Time
10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC)
Sept. 30, 2025
Citation
Caflisch, Andrea, Masterson, Daniel, O'Connell, Stephen D., and Julia Smith-Omomo. 2025. "Aid, Economic Recovery, and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 29.
https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ba2ye6
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