Forecasting the SSPP Research Results

Study ID sspp-2025-0032-v1

General Details

Project Forecasting SSPP Results
Study ID sspp-2025-0032-v1
Study Title Forecasting the SSPP Research Results
Authors Stefano DellaVigna, Eva Vivalt
Completion Time 10 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Aug. 8, 2025
Discipline Economics
Field Behavioral Economics, Other
Country Online (many countries)
Abstract
Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But what do we know about the accuracy of these forecasts? We use a unique data set from the Social Science Prediction Platform for all 100 projects posted in the 2020-24 period, including results for 66 projects. This unique data set (with over 53,000 forecasts, 34,000 of which have results) contains detailed information on the projects and the forecasters, including tracking forecasters across projects. In this survey, we ask you to make predictions about various results we obtain from this dataset, including results on the mean forecasts and forecaster accuracy.

Forecast Distributions

When uploading forecasting surveys, authors are asked to select several key questions which are often the questions they think are the most important to the study.

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Disclaimer: All data are preliminary and may differ from the published results.

Citation
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Eva Vivalt. 2025. "Forecasting the SSPP Research Results." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 8. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/zz8ee8

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