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Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions

Study ID sspp-2025-0031-v1

General Details

Project Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions
Study ID sspp-2025-0031-v1
Study Title Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions
Authors Christopher Hoy, Matias Strehl Pessina, Maholopa Laveil, Darian Naidoo
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Sept. 30, 2025
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics, Industrial Organization, Public Economics
Country Papua New Guinea
Abstract
We are soliciting expert predictions about a project analyzing the pass-through and incidence of Value Added Tax (VAT) exemptions on food in a low-income setting with very high levels of informality. We draw on detailed administrative data, a panel of nationally representative phone surveys, data scraped from supermarket websites, and direct observation of food prices across all supermarkets in the largest city in Papua New Guinea.




Citation
Hoy, Christopher, Pessina, Matias Strehl, Laveil, Maholopa, and Darian Naidoo. 2025. "Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions." Social Science Prediction Platform. July 1. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/ydx2b4