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Ramadan, Armed Conflict, and Peaceful Protest in Predominantly Muslim Countries

Study ID sspp-2026-0012-v1

General Details

Project Religion and Conflict: Evidence from Ramadan
Study ID sspp-2026-0012-v1
Study Title Ramadan, Armed Conflict, and Peaceful Protest in Predominantly Muslim Countries
Authors Humoyun Abdumavlon
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) July 31, 2026
Discipline Economics, Political Science
Field Development Economics, Comparative Politics, Political Behavior
Country Many countries (not online)
Abstract
This survey collects expert forecasts on the effect of Ramadan, the Islamic lunar month of fasting, on armed conflict and peaceful protest in predominantly Muslim countries. Forecasters predict the direction and percentage change in each outcome during Ramadan months relative to non-Ramadan months.


Forecast Distributions


When uploading forecasting surveys, authors are asked to select several key questions which are often the questions they think are the most important to the study.

View Key Question Response Distribution:
Disclaimer: All data are preliminary and may differ from the published results.



Citation
Humoyun Abdumavlon. 2026. "Ramadan, Armed Conflict, and Peaceful Protest in Predominantly Muslim Countries." Social Science Prediction Platform. May 25. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/f2z0by

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