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Water Quality Intervention Forecasting

Study ID sspp-2025-0054-v1

General Details

Project Water Quality Intervention Forecasting
Study ID sspp-2025-0054-v1
Study Title Water Quality Intervention Forecasting
Authors Rhiannon Britt, Jessie Barker, Zack Devlin-Foltz, Josh Rosenberg, Connacher Murphy, and Ezra Karger
Completion Time 20 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) Feb. 10, 2026
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Country Nigeria
Abstract
In partnership with GiveWell, we are collecting forecasts for a hypothetical public health program: specifically, a randomized controlled trial testing a specific method of providing chlorinated water to households in a region of Nigeria. You can think of your task as predicting what a hypothetical impact evaluation would find: what would be the estimated causal impact of the chlorination program on under-5 child mortality?

Incentive Details

Incentive Type Based on forecast accuracy
Calculation Method
Recipient Pool Incentives are lottery-based
Lottery Percentage 5.0%


Forecast Distributions


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Disclaimer: All data are preliminary and may differ from the published results.



Citation
Britt, Rhiannon, Barker, Jessie, Devlin-Foltz, Zack, Rosenberg, Josh, Murphy, Connacher, and and Ezra Karger. 2025. "Water Quality Intervention Forecasting." Social Science Prediction Platform. December 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/czbbyx