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ProjectLMO Study IDsspp-2026-0010-v1 Study Title
Overconfidence in people and LLMs AuthorsDon Moore Completion Time5 Minutes Close Date (UTC)June 5, 2026 DisciplinePsychology FieldCognitive Psychology CountryUnited States Abstract This study will compare overconfidence in humans and large language models. The key measure will elicit certainty in the form of a belief distribution. A distribution with a smaller mean absolute deviation (MAD) implies greater certainty. A reported distribution with smaller MAD than the true distribution implies overprecision: excessive certainty.