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ProjectDeterminants of Professional Forecasting Study IDsspp-2025-0048-v1 Study Title
Determinants of Professional Forecasting AuthorsLukas Hack, Lora Pavlova, Davud Rostam-Afschar Completion Time15 Minutes Close Date (UTC)Feb. 28, 2026 DisciplineEconomics, Psychology, Political Science, Sociology, Management, Public Policy FieldApplied Econometrics, Financial Economics, Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, Experimental Economics, Social Psychology, Cognitive Psychology, Collective Behavior, Experimental Psychology, Behavioral Insights, Behavioral Science, Behavioral Economics CountryGermany Abstract We study how information about the distribution of peers’ forecasts affects professional
forecasters’ own predictions. Using the Finanzmarkttest (FMT) survey of financial market
experts, conducted monthly by ZEW Mannheim, we implement an information provision
experiment. Participants provide quarterly GDP growth forecasts for Germany. A
randomly selected subset (treatment group) receives information about the actual share
of forecasters whose previous forecast was lower than their own. This allows us to
causally identify whether forecasters adjust their expectations in response to information
about the forecast distribution, revealing strategic and behavioral motives in professional
forecasting.
Forecast Distributions
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Citation
Hack, Lukas, Pavlova, Lora, and Davud Rostam-Afschar. 2025. "Determinants of Professional Forecasting." Social Science Prediction Platform. October 30. https://socialscienceprediction.org/s/axf242