Overconfidence in people and LLMs (Public)
Project
LMO
Study ID sspp-2026-0010-v1
Study Title Overconfidence in people and LLMs
Authors Don Moore
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 5, 2026
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Country United States
Abstract
This study will compare overconfidence in humans and large language models. The key measure will elicit certainty in the form of a belief distribution. A distribution with a smaller mean absolute deviation (MAD) implies greater certainty. A reported distribution with smaller MAD than the true distribution implies overprecision: excessive certainty.
Study ID sspp-2026-0010-v1
Study Title Overconfidence in people and LLMs
Authors Don Moore
Completion Time 5 Minutes
Close Date (UTC) June 5, 2026
Discipline Psychology
Field Cognitive Psychology
Country United States
Abstract
This study will compare overconfidence in humans and large language models. The key measure will elicit certainty in the form of a belief distribution. A distribution with a smaller mean absolute deviation (MAD) implies greater certainty. A reported distribution with smaller MAD than the true distribution implies overprecision: excessive certainty.
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