The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture (Public)
Project
The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture
Study ID sspp-2023-0024-v1
Study Title The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture
Authors Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane, Harshil Sahai
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Country India
Abstract
Approximately 65% of the world’s working poor depend on agriculture for survival (World Bank, 2016). Yet, the acceleration of climate change makes it increasingly difficult for households to derive stable returns from their agricultural investments. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather shocks, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in most parts of the world. This research uses a randomized control trial to test a new method of adaptation for farmers: long-range weather forecasts. We leverage recent advances in atmospheric science to bring high-quality forecasts about when the monsoon will arrive to farmers. We estimate the impact of these forecasts on farmers’ beliefs about when the monsoon will arrive, consumption, agricultural investments and production, assets and household finance, and migration decisions (among others).
Study ID sspp-2023-0024-v1
Study Title The Value of Forecasts: Experimental Evidence from Developing-Country Agriculture
Authors Fiona Burlig, Amir Jina, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane, Harshil Sahai
Completion Time 15 Minutes
Close Date Aug. 31, 2023
Discipline Economics
Field Development Economics
Country India
Abstract
Approximately 65% of the world’s working poor depend on agriculture for survival (World Bank, 2016). Yet, the acceleration of climate change makes it increasingly difficult for households to derive stable returns from their agricultural investments. Agricultural production is highly sensitive to weather shocks, which are becoming increasingly prevalent in most parts of the world. This research uses a randomized control trial to test a new method of adaptation for farmers: long-range weather forecasts. We leverage recent advances in atmospheric science to bring high-quality forecasts about when the monsoon will arrive to farmers. We estimate the impact of these forecasts on farmers’ beliefs about when the monsoon will arrive, consumption, agricultural investments and production, assets and household finance, and migration decisions (among others).
Log In to Receive Additional Forecasting Benefits
Save your progress and compare your forecasts to the actual results of the study upon release by logging in.Don't have an account? Sign up here.
Continue without logging in
You can choose to make an account upon completion.